Egypt, Somalia, Eritrea Form Axis Amid Tensions With Ethiopia

“Working to reduce unnecessary tensions, image-tarnishing campaigns”: Ethiopian Foreign Ministry

The heads of state of Egypt and Somalia flew into Asmara this week at the invitation of President Isaias Afwerki amid rising regional tensions. In a joint statement released on October 10, 2024, the three leaders vowed to provide all forms of support to Somali security forces and protect Somalia’s sovereignty.

The heads of state “agreed to develop and deepen cooperation and coordination between the three countries in order to enhance the capabilities of the Somali state institutions to confront various internal and external challenges, and to enable the Somali National Federal Army to confront terrorism in all its forms, protect its land and sea borders, and maintain its territorial integrity,” according to the statement.

The trio also commended Egypt for sending troops as part of peacekeeping efforts in Somalia. Mogadishu this week said Ethiopia cannot be part of the AU peacekeeping mission set to begin in 2025 unless Addis Ababa backtracks on its MoU with Somaliland.

The leaders of the three countries also agreed to establish a Joint Tripartite Committee of the Foreign Ministers of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia for strategic cooperation in all fields.

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“During our talks today, we have resolved to extend unwavering and comprehensive support to Somalia to fulfill His Excellency, dear brother, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s vision of restoring security and safety to his country through its national army,” said Egyptian President El-Sisi.

He said discussions included perspectives on how to counter “plans and actions aimed at destabilizing and fragmenting countries in the region.”

Although none of the three explicitly mentioned Ethiopia, analysts conclude the Asmara axis is inevitably centered around countering Ethiopian influence in the region.

During his first speech as incoming president on Monday, Taye Atskeselssie stated that Ethiopia will continue pursuing the realization of the MoU signed with Somaliland.

In its weekly bulletin on Friday October 11, 2024, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said “efforts have been made to reduce unnecessary diplomatic tensions and prevent a campaign to tarnish its image.”

Experts assert the whole point of the axis and the Asmara meeting is to intimidate Ethiopia into abandoning its pursuit of the MoU and operationalization of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

“Their joint statement indicates a focus on ‘bringing peace to the region’ but it’s important to note Egypt does not share a border with either Somalia or Eritrea,” said Costantinos Berhutesfa (PhD), a geopolitical analyst and former AU anti-graft commissioner. “Egypt’s involvement in Somalia has drawn protests, even from powerful nations. Given Egypt’s reluctance to engage directly in war with Ethiopia, it may seek to leverage Eritrea in a potential proxy war to destabilize Ethiopia. This strategy could be linked to Egypt’s long-standing grievances with Ethiopia over the GERD”

He foresees another approach may involve “intimidating” Ethiopia by forming an alliance with Somalia, with the aim of pressuring the Ethiopian government into signing the GERD agreement on terms favorable to Egypt.

“One of the primary instruments of international relations is the use of sanctions and intimidation. You can observe this through the communication breakdown and the canceled flights with Eritrea. Clearly, the relationship between the two countries is strained,” said Costantinos.

However, he does not think the developments pose a serious threat to Ethiopia.

“If it escalates to conflict, it would turn out to be as bad as the news of the Eritrean government controlling more Ethiopian territory. However, they don’t have the leverage to start a war with Ethiopia, with the TPLF’s case in consideration. That too has been addressed as reports from the TPLF camp say they have had discussions with the Eritrean government to solve their issues. I don’t think Eritrea will allow an Egyptian in its territory,” said the analyst.

Assefa Leake Gebru (PhD), an assistant professor in Mekelle University’s Department of Political Science and Strategic Studies, is a little more apprehensive.

“The alliance presents significant security risks for Ethiopia, including the potential for increased military aggression. Eritrea’s historical rivalry with the TPLF, combined with its willingness to destabilize Ethiopia, may embolden it to adopt more aggressive military strategies, leading to direct confrontations along the border,” he said.

Assefa foresees the alliance could facilitate enhanced military cooperation between the three states, including joint exercises and intelligence sharing aimed at undermining Ethiopian security.

He warned the situation could embolden extremist groups in Somalia to operate against Ethiopia.

Costantinos called on the federal government to use proactive diplomacy to address any potential challenges.

“This includes engaging in negotiations with the Egyptian and Eritrean governments as well as international organizations. As long as Egypt refrains from attacking Israel, the US will continue to support Egypt. However, it is crucial for the Ethiopian government to initiate discussions with the US government and say ‘Ethiopia should not be destabilized’,” said Costantinos.

He and other analysts who spoke with The Reporter urged the government to renew efforts at rapprochement with Eritrea and other neighboring countries.

“It would be beneficial to build on the positive relations that began earlier. This is especially relevant because Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh has used the signing of the MoU as a personal vendetta, even though he knows his administration cannot last without the presence of the Ethiopian army in the country,” said Costantinos.

Assefa recommends strengthening alliances with neighboring Kenya and Sudan to counterbalance any future aggression. He also wants to see Ethiopia propose a comprehensive water resource management framework for the Nile Basin and invest in public diplomacy to clarify its position and garner international support.

“These strategies will be instrumental in safeguarding Ethiopia’s interests and promoting regional stability,” said Assefa.