The Pretoria Agreement of November 2022 was meant to be a turning point in Ethiopia’s troubled history, bringing an end to the devastating war in Tigray and laying the foundation for peace, reconstruction, and reconciliation. Central to the accord was the establishment of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA), tasked with guiding the region through a transitional period until elections could be held. Yet as the term of the TIA nears is set to end in less than a fortnight, the prospects for sustaining the agreement look increasingly fragile. Massive mobilization of Ethiopian National Defence Forces (ENDF) along the Tigray border, internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as well as persistent friction between the federal government and the TPLF have stalled progress on key provisions, including the full disarmament of regional forces and the return of displaced persons. The danger of a breakdown is real, and the imperative to avert a resumption of conflict could not be more urgent.
The Pretoria Agreement was not simply about formalizing a ceasefire; it was a framework for rebuilding trust and creating conditions for lasting peace. Its provisions—disarmament, reintegration of displaced persons, restoration of services, and eventual elections—were designed to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term political grievances. Yet nearly four years later, implementation has faltered. Disarmament remains incomplete, with regional forces still active. Tens of thousands of displaced persons remain unable to return home. Political mistrust between the federal government and the TPLF has hardened, and the TIA itself has been weakened by internal divisions. Instead of moving toward reconciliation, Ethiopia risks sliding back into confrontation.
The mobilization of ENDF troops along the Tigray border is particularly alarming. It signals a readiness for renewed confrontation at a time when dialogue should be at the forefront of everyone’s mind. For the people of Tigray, the buildup reinforces fears of federal encroachment and undermines confidence in the peace process. For the federal government, the continued presence of armed regional forces is seen as a violation of Pretoria’s terms. This mutual suspicion creates a dangerous stalemate, where each side prepares for war rather than compromise. The longer this persists, the greater the risk of miscalculation and escalation.
Internal divisions within the TPLF compound the problem. Factions disagree on how to engage with Addis Ababa, how far to go in implementing the Pretoria Agreement, and how to balance regional autonomy with national unity. These disagreements weaken the TIA, making it less effective in carrying out its transitional mandate. Without a cohesive leadership, the region is struggling to present a united front in negotiations, leaving space for mistrust and paralysis. Meanwhile, ordinary citizens remain trapped in uncertainty, their hopes for peace and stability indefinitely shelved.
The humanitarian consequences of a breakdown would be catastrophic. Displaced persons who have waited years to return home would face renewed insecurity. Communities already scarred by war would be subjected to fresh violence. Humanitarian agencies, still struggling to deliver aid, would confront new obstacles. Ethiopia, already burdened by economic challenges and political polarization, would be plunged back into crisis. The gains of Pretoria—fragile though they are—would be lost, and the country would face yet another cycle of devastation.
The imperative now is to salvage the agreement before it collapses. Both the federal government and TPLF must recommit to dialogue, recognizing that the alternative is renewed war. The federal government should demonstrate flexibility, easing military pressure and creating space for negotiation. The TPLF on its part ought to resolve its internal divisions and present a coherent strategy for peace. The TIA, though temporary, has to be empowered to carry out its mandate, with support from both sides. Disarmament must be pursued in a phased, transparent manner, monitored by neutral observers to build confidence. And the return of displaced persons needs to be given the utmost priority, with guarantees of safety and support for rebuilding livelihoods.
The international community also has a critical role. It is vital that the African Union, which brokered Pretoria, remain engaged by offering mediation and technical support. Meanwhile, donor states should provide resources for disarmament, reconstruction, and humanitarian assistance. At the same time both sides have to be pressured to honor their commitments, albeit with the provision of support to help them succeed. Peace cannot be imposed, but it can be nurtured through sustained engagement and accountability.
The prospect of a breakdown is real, but it is not inevitable. Ethiopia has the capacity to avert disaster if its leaders choose dialogue over mobilization, compromise over confrontation, and reconciliation over division. The Pretoria Agreement was a hard-won achievement, a rare moment of compromise in a history of conflict. Allowing it to unravel would be a betrayal of the sacrifices made to reach it. Given it remains the best hope for peace in Tigray and stability in Ethiopia, preserving it is not only a political necessity but a moral imperative. The future of millions depends on it.
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