Ethiopia is grappling with an escalating seismic crisis as a series of earthquakes linked to the East African Rift raises fears of a potential volcanic eruption. The ongoing tectonic activity—driven by the gradual separation of the African and Arabian plates—has heightened the country’s vulnerability to earthquakes and possible volcanic unrest. While geologists closely monitor the situation, the recent tremors have already caused significant infrastructure damage and displaced tens of thousands, amplifying concerns about what lies ahead.
On January 4, 2025, a 5.8-magnitude earthquake struck at 3:52 a.m. local time, approximately 56 kilometers southeast of Ambosa in the Oromia region, near Dofen Mountain in the Awash Fentale district. The quake displaced an estimated 80,338 residents, with tremors felt as far as Addis Ababa. The damage extended across homes, roads, and key infrastructure, including the Kesem Sugar Factory, one of Ethiopia’s largest sugar producers.
Ali Hussen, the factory’s manager, woke to scenes of devastation. “The ground just cracked open,” he said, standing near a deep fissure that now slices through the sugarcane fields. “It was like the earth was trying to swallow us.” The factory sustained severe structural damage—collapsed walls, destroyed electromechanical systems, and ruptured water pipelines. Thousands of workers fled, leaving 4,000 uncertain about whether they would ever return.
The destruction extended far beyond Kesem. Roads split apart, power lines lay in twisted wreckage, and the Ethio-Djibouti railway—a critical trade route—suffered visible cracks, threatening supply chain disruptions. Farmers in Oromia and Afar watched helplessly as irrigation systems shattered and once-thriving sugarcane fields were consumed by deep chasms.
Yet, seismologists warn that the earthquakes may be only a prelude to a far greater danger. Dofen Mountain, a dormant volcano, has begun exhibiting troubling signs of activity—steam vents opening along its slopes, rising ground temperatures, and increasing underground pressure detected by seismic sensors.
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Yosef Tamrat, a veteran hydrologist and geological engineer, sees an ominous pattern. He recalls the 2011 Nabro volcanic eruption in the Afar region, which was preceded by weeks of small tremors, much like those now rattling Ethiopia. “If the tremors continue and the pressure builds, we could be looking at a major eruption,” he warned. “And if that happens, evacuation is the only hope.”
Authorities are taking no chances. As aftershocks continue, the Ethiopian government launched a large-scale evacuation effort. The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) reports that over 80,338 residents have been displaced, with 60,036 in Afar alone directly affected. In towns like Awash, families crowd into makeshift camps, awaiting aid. The government has allocated 282 million Ethiopian birr for emergency relief, but efforts are struggling to keep pace with the mounting humanitarian crisis.
Mussa Ahmed, deputy administrator of the Afar region, describes the crisis in stark terms. “We don’t have enough temporary shelters,” he admits. “More people are being displaced every day. We need immediate intervention.”
Despite government efforts, humanitarian aid remains out of reach for many. While some communities have been successfully relocated, an estimated 75 percent of at-risk populations remain stranded in high-risk zones, with little to no access to assistance. A recent report from the Joint Multi-Sectoral Initial Rapid Assessment (MIRA) found that entire villages have yet to receive significant aid, as logistical hurdles and damaged infrastructure continue to delay relief efforts.
In Addis Ababa, concern is growing. Ethiopia’s capital sits perilously close to the Rift Valley, and many of its buildings are not designed to withstand a major earthquake. A tremor stronger than 6.5 could bring catastrophe.
“We are sitting on a fault line,” warns Yosef. “Not just geologically, but in terms of preparedness. We’ve been lucky so far, but luck doesn’t last forever.”
Beyond the immediate humanitarian crisis, the economic toll is mounting. The damage to Kesem Sugar Factory alone threatens to disrupt the country’s sugar production, affecting both local supply and exports. The Ethio-Djibouti trade corridor—an essential route for transporting goods to Ethiopia’s primary port—remains at risk. Structural damage to roads and bridges has delayed shipments, further straining an already fragile economy.
Industries across the affected regions are struggling to recover. Farmers in Oromia and Afar report massive losses as agricultural land is rendered unusable. Businesses reliant on road networks connecting Addis Ababa to industrial hubs face supply chain disruptions, delaying the transport of raw materials and essential goods.
But beneath the economic and humanitarian concerns lies an even more unsettling reality: Ethiopia is sitting on a geological time bomb. Each tremor serves as a stark reminder that much of Ethiopia’s infrastructure—built without earthquake-resistant standards—could collapse in an instant.
Tamrat does not mince words. “We cannot predict the next big one,” he says, “but we know it’s coming. And when it does, the only shield these communities have is early evacuation.”
Ethiopia has faced earthquakes before, but recent activity suggests the country may be entering a more seismically active period. With the 2011 Nabro eruption in mind, geologists and policymakers are urging the Ethiopian government to take long-term measures to improve earthquake preparedness, reinforce infrastructure, and implement disaster response strategies before the next catastrophe strikes.
Back in Afar, Ali surveys the remains of the Kesem Sugar Factory. The machines are silent. The workers are gone. And the ground beneath his feet—still shifting, still uncertain—reminds him that this is not the end. It is only the beginning.
Contributed by Mignot Tariku
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