As Ethiopians wave goodbye to 2016EC the coming week, they are looking forward to 2017EC with a mixture of hope and trepidation. Leaning more towards doom and gloom than optimism, the mixed outlook is based onthe devastating impacts of the myriad of challenges Ethiopia faced during 2016.From political unrest to bad governance to macroeconomic pressures the just-ending year has turned out to be one of the most difficult periods in Ethiopia’s recent history. While Ethiopians are understandably keen to bid farewell to 2016, it is of the essence to formulate comprehensive strategies to address them effectively in the year ahead. Failure to draw the appropriate lessons and take the actions necessary to mitigate the debilitating effects of the challenges is bound to make 2017 no better than its predecessor or even worse.
The gravest of the challenges that severely tested Ethiopia in 2016 was the escalating clashes between the government and various insurgencies in different parts of the country. Fueled by grievances related to political representation, economic inequality, and social justice, the violence has led to the death, injury and abduction of an unknown number of innocent civilians, the destruction of properties as well as the disruption of educational, medical, transportation and internet services. The egregious human rights violations perpetrated by all sides to the raging conflicts, including the government, has resulted in egregious human rights abusesand driven further unrest, creating a volatile environment that threatened national stability.On the other hand, the continued prevalence of arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings, and restrictions on freedoms of expression, assembly, and the press have not only alienated many citizens but also drew scrutiny from the international community, undermining Ethiopia’s reputation.The fact that there seems to be no end in sight to the ongoing fighting and rights violations has Ethiopians worried that 2017 will not bode well for the nation.
From an economic perspective, the worsening macroeconomic conditions that Ethiopia has been confronted with for decades rendered 2016 an exceptionally difficult year for its citizens. Compounded by a political crisis that has been sweeping the nation, the significant increase in the prices of essential goods and services severely impacted the impoverished majority. Although both the federal and regional governments implemented a series of initiatives aimed at alleviating the financial strain induced by the surging inflation, they themselves have acknowledged that these measures failed to achieve the intended outcomes of stabilizing or reducing the costs of basic necessities, including food, utilities, housing, transportation, healthcare, and education. In fact, some of these initiatives had unintended negative effects, exacerbating the situation. The hike in inflation can be attributed to a combination of external factors, but predominantly stems from domestic issues. The precipitous depreciation of the Ethiopian currency following the government’s recent decision to float it is expected to escalateinflationary pressures even further in 2017.
Aside from these challenges youth unemployment and poor education quality also bedeviled Ethiopia during 2016. Ethiopia’s youth population, which constitutes a significant portion of its demographic, faced challenges related to access to quality education and high unemployment rates. The mismatch between educational outcomes and market demands resulted in many educated youths being unable to find suitable employment, provoking widespread discontent. Moreover, during the year the country experienced severe food insecurity caused by prolonged drought conditions, affecting millions of people, especially in pastoral and rural areas, and leaving them in need of urgent food assistance. The drought not only had an immediate impact on food availability but also threatened health, education, and livelihoods, perpetuating a cycle of poverty.
If 2017 is to be a year of peace and prosperity for all Ethiopians, the deeply interconnectedchallenges Ethiopia faced in 2016 need to be tackled through holistic and multi-faceted responses from both the government and society. This calls for, among others, undertaking an inclusive dialogue that addresses grievances and promotes peace,reconciliationand good governance; pursuing macroeconomic reforms which help curb inflation and foster an enabling environment for investment and growth; empowering citizens to exercise their rights freely while upholding transparency and accountability for rights violations; investing in enhancing the quality of education and youth employment; and combating food insecurity by increasing agricultural productivity and strengthening the ability to respond to drought and other climate-related shocks. These measures will go some way towards navigating the challenges Ethiopia is sure to encounter in 2017. Happy New Year to all Ethiopians!
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