As Ethiopians bid farewell to 2017, they approach 2018 with a blend of cautious hope and apprehension. For many, pessimism outweighs optimism as they reflect on the difficulties of the past year—one of the most turbulent periods in Ethiopia’s recent history. While it ended on a high note with the inauguration of the long-cherished Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), political upheaval, governance shortcomings, and economic strain combined to make 2017 a year most citizens are eager to leave behind. Yet, optimism for the year ahead will only be justified if all stakeholders take decisive steps to address these challenges. Without drawing the right lessons and implementing effective remedies, 2018 risks repeating—or even worsening—the hardships of the year just ended.
The most severe test of 2017 came in the form of intensifying clashes between government forces and insurgent groups in several regions. These conflicts, rooted in grievances over representation, inequality, and justice, led to loss of life, injuries, kidnappings, and widespread destruction of property. Schools, health services, transportation, and other access were frequently disrupted, compounding the suffering. Human rights abuses—committed by both the state and armed groups—deepened the crisis, fueling instability and threatening national cohesion. The persistence of arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings, restrictions on free speech and assembly through administrative measures as well as the enactment of laws that rolled back the gains made during the early years of the current administration, further alienated citizens and drew criticism from the international community, tarnishing Ethiopia’s global image. With no discernible prospects of an immediate end to the ongoing violence, many fear that the turmoil racking the nation will not de-escalate in 2018.
The economy offered little respite. Longstanding macroeconomic weaknesses made 2017 especially difficult for ordinary Ethiopians. Soaring prices for essential goods and services—exacerbated by the political crisis—hit the poorest the hardest. Despite government interventions meant to curb inflation and ease the cost of living, officials themselves conceded that the measures largely failed to ease the hardship faced by the majority poor. Food, utilities, housing, transport, education, and healthcare costs all remained painfully high, and some initiatives even worsened the situation. Although external factors contributed, domestic missteps were the primary drivers of inflation. The sharp depreciation of the birr following the government’s decision to float the currency over a year ago is likely to push prices even higher in 2018.
Beyond politics and economics, youth unemployment and the poor quality of education also weighed heavily on the country. With young people making up a large share of Ethiopia’s population, the lack of adequate education and job opportunities created frustration and unrest. The mismatch between graduates’ skills and the labor market left many educated youths unemployed, fueling social tension. On top of this, the country continued to be gripped in the throes of food insecurity, with over 21 million citizens left needing humanitarian assistance, including a significant number relying on food assistance due to a worsening food security crisis. This need stemmed from the compounding impacts of conflict, climate shocks like drought, disease outbreaks, and economic challenges.
If 2018 is to mark a turn toward peace and progress, Ethiopia must confront these overlapping crises through comprehensive and coordinated action. The path forward ideally includes, among others, the conclusion of the national dialogue underway in a manner that addresses the credibility and effectiveness issues blighting it so as to heal divisions and promote reconciliation, good governance, and accountability; breathing life into the stalled transitional justice process; macroeconomic reforms to stabilize prices and encourage investment; protection of civil liberties and human rights; investment in quality education and programs to tackle youth unemployment; and robust efforts to fight food insecurity by boosting agricultural productivity and building resilience to drought and climate shocks. If Ethiopia is to chart a course toward a future where its citizenry are able to lead a life of peace, democracy, justice and dignity, it is absolutely imperative to pursue these priorities wholeheartedly. May the New Year bring peace, justice, and hope to all Ethiopians.
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