Bold Claims Contrast With Bleak Reality

In an address to Ethiopia’s parliament later this week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) presented a confident portrayal of his administration’s achievements, focusing on economic growth and development while largely sidelining the pressing challenges facing the nation.

The four-hour parliamentary regular session came three weeks following the presidential appointment of former Foreign Minister Taye Atskeselassie, and featured an outline of the government’s plans and ambitions for the fiscal year, which began in early July.

During the session, the Prime Minister addressed questions that had been forwarded to him in advance by legislators. MPs took a little over an hour to read out their questions, and the PM dedicated an hour and a half to economic inquiries and another hour for political topics.

The atmosphere in Parliament that day, however, was largely laid back as several MPs used their time to praise the Prime Minister and the ruling Prosperity Party (PP). This focus on commendations and accolades stands in stark contrast to the reality in most of the country, where conflict and economic challenges abound.

Among the questions posed were those concerning the government’s strategies for enhancing tax collection, the performance of the finance sector, civil servant salary adjustments, public subsidies, job creation, inflation, corruption, and barriers to investment.

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Political concerns were also raised, primarily by opposition members, on the incumbent’s stance on addressing ongoing conflicts with rebel forces in Amhara and Oromia, inclusivity and the success of efforts from the National Dialogue Commission to resolve the myriad of issues plaguing the country, the ongoing process of transitional justice, diplomacy and regional politics, strategic alliances, ethnic politics, and the imprisonment of journalists and activists, as well as dissent and opposition political party members.

Despite the gravity of these issues, Abiy responded in a manner that suggested Ethiopia was on a steady path of progress, in a way neglecting the significant political, social, and economic turbulence that the country has faced.

The PM asserted that the government anticipates an 8.4 percent economic growth for the current fiscal year, which he described as a pivotal time for solidifying and transitioning the economic reforms initiated six years ago.

The figure contrasts with forecasts from non-government analysts such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which foresees a 6.5 percent growth for the year.

In a tone laced with irony, he urged those clinging to outdated views to awaken and adapt to the changing realities of Ethiopia, emphasizing that they are now in a new chapter of the nation’s journey.

The PM expressed pride in the previous year’s reported growth of 8.1 percent (also greater than the IMF’s 6.2 percent figure), labeling it as an impressive economic performance on both the African continent and globally.

He recounted inquiries from international observers regarding the sources of Ethiopia’s rapid economic growth, quipping that “some people and international institutions who are unable to understand Ethiopia’s economic fast growth asked me, ‘Have you got fuel? What have you got?’”

Abiy highlighted a projected agricultural growth of 6.1 percent, industrial growth of 12.8 percent, and services sector growth of 7.1 percent.

The incumbent forecasts the production of 1.4 billion quintals of horticultural products from 30 million hectares, millions of cross-bred livestock, 12 billion liters of milk, eight billion eggs, and 270,000 tonnes of honey.

Some of the figures contradict data from other sources, including government agencies.

Last year, the Ministry of Agriculture announced plans to raise annual milk production from less than six billion liters in 2021 to more than 10 billion liters by 2028. According to the Prime Minister’s address, the ambitious target is set to be met before the current year is out.

The PM also referred to Ethiopia as the world’s third-largest producer of coffee after Brazil and Vietnam, and announced intentions to move up to second. However, sources indicate Ethiopia’s coffee production ranks fifth behind Colombia and Indonesia, while others place it in sixth.

Abiy predicted Ethiopian farmers would cultivate 300 million quintals of wheat this year, which would put the country level with giants such as Ukraine, which supplies three percent of the world’s wheat.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates Ethiopia’s wheat production in 2023/24 at 56 million quintals.

The Prime Minister dedicated a fair portion of his time to address Ethiopia’s ailing tax collection. Revenues officials warned last year that the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio had fallen to seven percent from 13.4 percent in 2015.

The Ministry of Revenues reported collecting 512 billion birr in taxes in the year that ended in July 2024.

Tax officials have previously cited a lack of crucial policies, administrative inefficiency, slow technology adoption, and a flourishing contraband trade for the languishing revenue figures.

The Prime Minister focused on the prevalence of an informal economy during his address.

“We do not collect taxes,” he said.

Nonetheless, he reported that tax officials had collected 180 billion birr over the first quarter, and announced plans to bring in revenues of 1.5 trillion birr before the year ends in July. Regional tax bureaus are expected to collect 600 billion birr, according to the PM.

He also claimed a significant growth in income from the export of gold and electricity is taking place, bringing in half a billion USD over the past few months alone.

“The difficult thing we are seeing now is not changing the country; what makes it difficult is changing the minds and the perceptions of people who are unable to change themselves amid the country’s transformation. Not from an opposition party, it is from our own Prosperity Party” said Abiy.

Discussing Ethiopia’s financial relationships, the Prime Minister noted that the government had secured USD 4.5 billion from creditors in the first three months of the fiscal year. He praised it as an impressive accomplishment in comparison to the same period last year, which saw only USD 400 million borrowed, according to the PM.

He also projected that successful negotiations could yield a grace period for billions of dollars in upcoming debt service.

The PM told lawmakers that around USD 27 billion is expected to flow into the country as a result of the macroeconomic reforms being undertaken by his administration. He outlined ambitions to create over four million jobs before July, partially through overseas employment agreements with other governments.

Despite the government’s ambitious economic reforms, Abiy acknowledged the need for subsidies to offset the impacts of these changes, detailing a subsidy plan totaling 400 billion birr for various essential goods and services.

In the first three months of the fiscal year, the government allocated 35 billion birr for fuel, 85 billion birr for the safety net program, 53 billion birr for fertilizer, nine billion birr for edible oil, and 18 billion birr for the procurement of medicine, according to the PM.

His overarching narrative painted a picture of success and accomplishment, reinforcing a narrative of progress against a backdrop of adversity.

When pressed on political issues, Abiy emphasized the importance of peaceful resolutions over conflict, asserting that the pursuit of democracy may require time but remains achievable.

Drawing a comparison between two historical leaders, he expressed admiration for Lee Kuan Yew, the first Prime Minister of Singapore, while contrasting Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China.

Abiy argued that Yew’s approach led to more significant transformation in Singapore than Mao’s methods in China. He characterized Mao as a warlord who was unable to lead his country to prosperity.

He disclosed there are ongoing negotiations with rebel forces in Amhara and Oromia, facilitated by organizations such as the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

“We know no one will beat us in a fight, no one; we don’t see a threat, but we need peace because that fight is not important,” said Abiy.

The Prime Minister also called for the formation of robust political parties and urged collaboration among various political entities. He further called on religious institutions to play a constructive role in society rather than being divisive.

He dismissed criticism of the controversial corridor project and asserted that its critics are mistaken in tying it to an effort to change demographics in Addis Ababa.

“We are building a city that  Ethiopia deserves,” he said.

The address made little mention of the armed conflict gripping the Amhara Regional State, nor did it refer to the political divisions and lagging rehabilitation and rebuilding efforts in war-torn Tigray.

Instead, the speech celebrated perceived economic achievements and future prospects, encouraging a narrative of progress and transformation.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s address to Parliament showcased a leader determined to highlight his administration’s successes while downplaying significant challenges facing Ethiopia.