Can A New Interim Admin Avert War In Tigray?

The precarious situation in Tigray was at the top of the agenda during Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s question time in Parliament two days ago, with MPs demanding an update on the prospect of renewed conflict in the region.

The PM indicated that following the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the two-year war with the TPLF, the current interim administrative structure would be replaced by a new system based on legal amendments.

He also mentioned that the interim administration will be expected to operate until the next election in a way that aligns with the Pretoria Agreement and ensures the process of empowering the people of Tigray.

When the law is amended, the performance will be reviewed and minor changes will be made, according to the PM.

He stated that his office has been part of discussions with members of the TPLF and TIA and indicated that various proposals relating to the region’s future have been submitted. Abiy hinted at evaluations for TIA officials and their actions over the last two years.

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He commended the TIA, led by President Getachew Reda and deputies Lieutenant Generals Tadesse Werede and Tsadkan Gebretensae, for preventing further fighting and resolving the two-year political problems through Dialogue.

“We want to praise them for the work they have done over the last two years, even while we blame them for the earlier fighting. They have made an effort to stop more fighting,” he stated.

The Pretoria Agreement was a central theme during the parliamentary session. The PM noted that the terms of the peace deal have not been adequately implemented, particularly in relation to disarmament, demobilization and reintegration (DDR) and internally displaced persons (IDPs).

“DDR is one of the issues that have not been implemented adequately. The failure to implement DDR primarily affects the people of Tigray. Despite attempts, it has not been fully implemented. Billions of birr are spent on these young people every month and every year, but development will not happen in Tigray, if they are stealing money from the people, using the budget for the military,” said Abiy.

He said that good work had been done for IDPs in Raya and Tselemt, and acknowledged that persistent issues remain in Wolkait and its surroundings.

The Prime Minister told MPs that the federal government is prepared to facilitate the return of IDPs to their homes, “even tomorrow.”

Although the Prime Minister expressed gratitude for the Pretoria Agreement and acknowledged the work ahead, he did not submit a formal report on the topic before appearing in Parliament. A regulation from the Council of Ministers requires the Prime Minister to provide a quarterly report on regional conditions to the House of Federation.

Meanwhile, the TPLF has been split into two factions, and escalating tensions between them have led to concerns over a possible renewal of conflict.

The Tigray Interim Administration was founded two years ago as part of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA), which was signed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government in November 2022. The federal government appointed Getachew Reda as President.

However, since June 2024, a rift within the TPLF between Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD) and Getachew has disrupted the administration’s operations. The political split, which intensified after the TPLF’s 14th congress held in August 2024, led Debretsion’s faction to remove Getachew and several other officials, claiming they will no longer have the authority to “lead, make decisions, or issue directives.”

Analysts claim the federal government is taking advantage of the feud, pointing to the PM’s silence on the subject and his failure to submit reports on the situation for the last two years.

Two dozen countries and blocs, including the European Union, local and international civil society organizations, and others, are concerned about the situation in the Tigray region and are calling for a solution through dialogue.

Ermias Tadesse, a political and foreign relations expert who spoke with The Reportercontends that the federal government’s decision to remain silent in all of this demonstrates its desire to gain a political advantage.

He observes that avoiding a confrontation with Tigray’s political leaders will help the federal government keep Eritrean influence to a minimum should the tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara intensify.

Ermias also mentioned that the federal government should move to grant Tigray back its seats in Parliament.

In an interview with The Reporter two months ago, Berhan Atsbeha, communications head for opposition party Salsay Weyane Tigray, said the Pretoria Agreement was supposed to reinstate constitutional governance, which did not happen.

“That agreement is against the people because it creates a transitional administration that does not hold any representation either in the federal House of Peoples’ Representatives or in the House of Federation. Where is the constitutional order it is supposed to bring back? Two years have elapsed since it was signed and the people of Tigray have no say in what is happening in the country. We have no representation. We have no shares in any federal institutions. Getting a budget subsidy is our right; a right the federal government is weaponizing as a tool to manipulate our regional state according to its own interests. There are no rehabilitation or reconstruction works on the ground. Investment opportunities remain hanging in the air,” said Berhan.

He noted that despite the lack of representation, parliamentary legislation is adopted by the TIA.

“The administration is passing laws that are not applicable in the current socio-economic conditions. Lacking representation within the federal structure is impacting the people’s lives in so many ways. I can mention the recent economic reform as the perfect example. This reform does not consider our post-war environment still struggling to get back on its feet. Decisions over the lives of our people are made by others. The Pretoria Agreement has given away the people’s right to self determination,” said Berhan.

Experts say the tension between regional leaders, which have prompted security forces to intervene, has jeopardized not only the Pretoria Agreement but also prevented the region from being represented in any government structure and making decisions. The question of where the situation will lead, given the current tensions in the Horn of Africa, remains unsolved.