Climate-related Deaths Rise Sharply Across Africa: Researchers

Ethiopia recorded at least 442 deaths since 2020, twice as many as in preceding decade

Extreme weather events claimed the lives of at least 442 Ethiopians in the past five years, according to a report published by an Indian public-interest research organization.

The ‘State of Africa’s Environment 2025’ report from the New Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE India) reveals that extreme weather events claimed twice as many Ethiopian lives between 2020 and 2025 as they did in the ten years leading up to the start of the new decade.

The report, released in Addis Ababa this week, indicates a similar pattern across Africa, where close to 42,000 people have been killed by climate events over the past 15 years. Close to 70 percent of them in 2020 or after, according to CSE India, marking a threefold increase in weather and climate-related fatalities in recent years.

The analysis confirmed not just a rise in frequency and intensity, but also the deadliness of climate-linked disasters, particularly for vulnerable populations lacking adequate resilience infrastructure. The report warns that the mounting death toll points to serious shortcomings in disaster risk reduction, emergency response, and climate adaptation planning across the continent.

Libya, DRC, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, Madagascar, South Africa, and Zimbabwe each saw at least 1,000 deaths over the reporting period, with a grave 13,225 deaths recorded in Libya alone, according to the report.

Libya’s disproportionate death toll is largely due to the catastrophic Derna floods of September 2023, widely regarded as one of the most lethal weather disasters ever recorded on the continent.

The report indicates that between 2021 and 2025, just five countries accounted for over 51 percent of all people affected by disasters in Africa. Ethiopia saw the highest numbers, with 33.1 million people affected, meaning a 17-fold increase.

DRC followed closely, with 28.5 million affected, representing a 42-fold surge from 660,000 in the previous five-year period, with Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan also experiencing a similar trend.

The report notes that three of the five most impacted countries are in East Africa, including Ethiopia.

“Ethiopia’s mountainous and highland terrain makes it particularly vulnerable to the growing impacts of climate change, with severe weather events — floods, droughts and landslides — now affecting communities across the country,” it reads.

The World Bank estimates annual climate-related losses to gross domestic product or GDP at 1-1.5 per cent, with projections suggesting these could rise to five percent by the 2040s, pushing millions more Ethiopians into poverty.

The Woodwell Climate Research Center’s National Climate Risk Assessment of Ethiopia from April projects that extreme rainfall events will become increasingly common over the coming decades, putting millions more at risk of flood disasters.

“Flood risk is generally concentrated within the central Rift Valley and in Somali, where communities have developed within the floodplain,” the Centre notes. “We estimate that the 100-year flood will impact more than 840,000 structures and cause greater than USD 1.47 billion in 2025 in building damages.”

Temperature increases of around one degree Celsius since the 1960s and erratic rainfall patterns have compounded Ethiopia’s climate vulnerability, says Dessalegn Atnafu, head of the biosafety and regulation desk at the Ethiopian Environmental Protection Authority (EPA).

Droughts and floods, he adds, have become alarmingly frequent.

To address these risks, Ethiopia has developed a comprehensive climate policy framework, aligning itself with international agreements such as the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

The country submitted its first updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2020, with a target to cut emissions by 68.8 percent by 2030. It is now preparing its next NDC submission for the 2031-2035 period.

Ethiopia’s climate ambitions are underpinned by a series of national strategies, including its Ten-Year Development Plan (2021-2030), the Long-Term Low Carbon Emission Development  Strategy (2020-2050), the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy and the National Adaptation Plan.

The National Adaptation Plan, adopted in 2019, outlines strategic actions to boost climate resilience.

Ermias Masresha, a senior environmental risk assessment expert at the EPA, explains that the plan identifies 18 adaptation options and five strategic priorities to be pursued until 2030. These span vulnerable sectors such as agriculture, forestry, health, transport, energy, industry, water and urban development.

“The plan seeks to mainstream climate change adaptation into long-term national development,” he says.

Through its Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategy, Ethiopia aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The NDC Implementation Plan requires an estimated USDc316 billion for the 2030 goals. The government has pledged to fund 20 percent of this cost, with the remainder dependent on waning external support.

Experts say climate impacts in Ethiopia range from direct exposure to heatwaves and extreme weather to indirect effects on food, water, disease transmission and infrastructure. The plan estimates that by 2030, an additional 248,200 people per year could be at risk of flooding. Heat-related deaths among the elderly may rise by a factor of 20 to over 65 per 100,000 people annually by 2080.

Agricultural productivity is also at risk.

Ermias explains that rainfall variability and rising temperatures, particularly a 20 percent decrease in rainfall in southcentral Ethiopia, and major droughts have already had a huge negative impact on productivity.

Messay Emana of the Ethiopian Biotechnology Institute warns that low adaptive capacity, coupled with climate-sensitive agriculture, makes Ethiopia especially vulnerable.

Around 97 percent of rural households depend on farming or livestock, cultivating an average of just 1.1 hectares each, mostly for their own consumption.

“Most cereals — 55 percent to 80 percent — are consumed by the households themselves, with sales accounting for only 15 percent or less,” said Messay.

He noted that smallholders are poorly equipped to cope with climate shocks and emphasized the need for soil and water conservation, agro-forestry, irrigation and diversified livelihoods.