Conflict, Climate, Cost Of Living Heighten Food Security Concerns Ahead Of Lean Season

Worsening conflict, rising food prices, and dwindling household resources are set to push millions of Ethiopians into deeper food insecurity in the coming months, with several regions already experiencing emergency hunger levels and the national situation expected to deteriorate further as the lean season approaches, a new outlook report warns.

The outlook, covering the period until September 2026, comes from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), a program initiated by the US Department of State and the now-defunct US Agency for International Development (USAID) four decades ago.

It indicates that acute food insecurity remains widespread across Ethiopia, with emergency conditions persisting in the most severely affected areas, particularly in drought prone and conflict affected regions, and worsened by a combination of economic pressure, climatic shocks, and renewed insecurity.

The analysis notes that pastoral households in southern and southeastern Ethiopia, including Afder, Liban, and Dawa, will be most vulnerable to food insecurity through May.

Crisis level food insecurity remains widespread in many other areas where households face declining food stocks, weak purchasing power, and limited livelihood opportunities, according to the report.

The Network warns that food assistance needs are expected to increase significantly as the lean season intensifies between June and August, a period when household food reserves are typically exhausted and reliance on markets rises sharply. During this time, rising staple prices and reduced income opportunities are expected to drive further deterioration in household food consumption across many regions.

The report also highlights renewed instability in northern Ethiopia as a major factor worsening food access and market conditions.

Escalating conflict in Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, and Afar is expected to disrupt trade corridors, limit labor migration, and restrict the movement of goods and people during the critical lean season.

Large-scale troop mobilization and renewed clashes have already raised concerns about transport disruptions, localized price spikes, and reduced market access, according to the document.

In Tigray, fighting erupted in early 2026, with heavy clashes reported in late January in Tselemit woreda of the North Western Zone involving the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF), and Amhara militias. The conflict later spread to southern Tigray, where armed confrontations reportedly occurred between the TDF and the Tigray Peace Force (TPF), the analysis notes.

The Network maintains that although clashes between ENDF and TDF have eased in some areas, tensions remain high with reports of troop movements and localized displacement events.

In the neighboring Amhara region, fighting between ENDF forces and Fano militias continues despite a decline in intensity compared with late 2025, the report notes.

However, it states that these developments have already begun to disrupt local economies. In northern markets, the escalation in conflict has triggered “panic purchasing, cash shortages, bank withdrawal restrictions, rising food prices, and fuel supply constraints. Trade flows between Tigray, Amhara, and Addis Ababa have also faced significant disruptions,” reads the analysis.

It also states that movement restrictions and insecurity are further limiting access to western surplus-producing agricultural areas and constraining labor opportunities for rural households dependent on seasonal migration.

Beyond conflict, the FEWS NET outlook report indicates that macroeconomic pressures are contributing to the worsening food security outlook.

The report notes that Ethiopia’s macroeconomic conditions remain weak, sustaining high living costs nationwide.

It cites data from the Ethiopian Statistical Service highlighting that although annual inflation stabilized in January, the Birr has depreciated sharply against the US dollar, weakening purchasing power and pushing up food prices.

“Since the economic reform launched in July 2024, the Birr has depreciated 60.5 percent against the US dollar, increasing the cost of imported goods and contributing to rising staple food prices in areas heavily dependent on imports, particularly in southern and southeastern pastoral regions,” it reads.

It also states that although the 2025 Meher harvest helped stabilize staple food prices in some areas, prices remain atypically high in regions where crop production was below average.

These include East and West Hararghe in Oromia, North Gondar, Wag Himra and North Wollo in Amhara, and the Southern Zone of Tigray, where prices have continued rising instead of declining seasonally.

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network projects that food prices will begin rising again from February and remain significantly above average throughout the projection period, with peaks expected during August and September when market supplies decline and the lean season intensifies.

On the other hand, the outlook indicates that humanitarian assistance continues to play a critical role in mitigating the severity of food insecurity in several regions. However, the report warns that funding shortages and logistical constraints are limiting its impact.

It states that in January 2026, around 1.8 million people received food assistance, a five percent decline compared with the previous month when approximately 1.9 million people were assisted.

“Funding shortfalls have forced the World Food Programme (WFP) to reduce food rations for most refugees to 60 percent of minimum caloric requirements, while registration delays mean that some newly arrived refugees are unable to access assistance at all,” it reads.

Assistance remains concentrated in Tigray, Somali, Oromia, Afar, and Amhara regions, but insecurity in parts of Amhara and Oromia continues to disrupt aid deliveries and resource constraints have also led to reduced rations in many rural areas, according to the document.

The Network cites Ethiopia’s large internally displaced and refugee populations as a growing concern, particularly in light of a renewed influx of refugees from South Sudan and the prospect of renewed conflict in the north.

FEWS NET expects both the refugee population and the number of internally displaced people to increase further through September as conflict persists in northern Ethiopia and in neighboring countries.

Weather conditions also remain a source of uncertainty. Climate forecasts indicate a growing likelihood of El Niño conditions developing in mid-2026, which could reduce rainfall during Ethiopia’s main Kiremt agricultural season.

If rainfall deficits coincide with existing conflict and economic pressures, the report warns that the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance could increase substantially.

However, the outlook report concludes that while large-scale famine is not expected within the projection period, the convergence of conflict, economic pressure, and climatic uncertainty is likely to sustain widespread food insecurity across Ethiopia through at least September 2026.