Election Board, TPLF Feud Culminates In Proscription. What Next?

Party calls on African Union to step in

The intensifying standoff between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has reignited unresolved political tensions stemming from the two-year war that ended with the Pretoria Agreement in late 2022 and amplified concerns about the potential for renewed conflict.

This week, the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced decision to strip TPLF of its federal recognition and strike its name off the list of political parties in Ethiopia. The party promptly rejected the move, claiming it does not recognize the Board’s “certificate” and arguing the peace accord guarantees the reinstatement of its legal and political standing.

International observers have expressed concern over the dispute, made more urgent by claims of Eritrean interference resurface and reports of military mobilization along the northern borders, potentially signalling a conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

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However, perspectives differ on the immediate risks.

One political analyst downplayed the urgency, stating, “the decision doesn’t mean anything now” and arguing that no immediate danger exists.

In contrast, an opposition leader warns that conflict is a very real possibility.

“The people of Tigray face the threat of being pulled into a war that serves neither their interests nor their future as tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea intensify, once again,” he said.

The Board’s decision on May 14, 2025, strips TPLF of its status as a political party and effectively excludes it from formal political participation. It is the second time in recent years that the party has seen its name struck off the registry.

TPLF had been proscribed by the federal government and labelled a terrorist organization by Parliament following the outbreak of war in 2020.

The latest ban follows a three-month suspension levied on TPLF for failure to adhere to the terms of its reinstatement under an amended electoral law in mid-2024. The party was obligated to convene a general assembly within six months of its conditional registration in August 2024.

The Board says the party failed to comply.

“TPLF was delisted as a political party due to its involvement in rebellion. However, following the Pretoria Agreement, the Board issued repeated written reminders urging TPLF’s reinstatement as a legal entity and calling on the party to fulfill its legal responsibilities. To allow time for compliance, the Board also suspended the party’s political activities for three months, expecting corrective measures. Despite these efforts, TPLF failed to meet its obligations. Subsequently, after convening a general assembly, the Board officially delisted the party as a political entity, effective from May 13, 2025,” reads the NEBE statement issued Wednesday.

The Electoral Board has prohibited the party from political engagement and barred its members from any form of political participation. The Board has also refused to reinstate the party’s pre-war registration, insisting it must comply with current laws.

The decision has been met with fierce opposition from TPLF, which maintains that its legitimacy stems from the Pretoria Agreement.

The party argues that the peace deal implicitly reinstates its pre-war legal standing, rendering NEBE’s re-registration process “unnecessary.” In a statement issued following the Board’s, TPLF accused NEBE and the federal government of violating the agreement, warning that the decision poses a “serious threat” to the peace process.

The party maintains that the Pretoria Agreement is the key legal framework governing its relationship with the federal government. It cautioned that “withholding our legal recognition erodes the core principles of the peace deal.”

“If the Board is referring to revoking a certificate it alleges to have issued, we never acknowledged it in the first place,” reads the statement. “Regardless of NEBE’s decision, the Pretoria Agreement remains binding. The real danger lies in using this revocation to disregard the Agreement altogether. NEBE can only regulate us once it grants the recognition we are entitled to—recognition that is our right, as the Agreement is our foremost priority and the apple of our eye.”

The party has called on the AU, IGAD, and the international community to intervene, framing the dispute as a breach of the Pretoria Agreement.

During an interview with the party’s media outlet, Woyen, TPLF Chairman Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD) emphasized that the signing of the Pretoria Agreement was not contingent upon recognition or certification by the electoral board.

“Whether the electoral board revokes our status or not, the Pretoria Agreement will continue,” said the Chairman.

“We signed the Agreement not because the electoral board granted us a certificate. No action was taken based on the board’s documentation. Legal recognition by NEBE and the peace deal are entirely separate. There is no ongoing registration or revocation process—our full legal status remains unresolved. Nevertheless, the Agreement will proceed unchanged.”

Vice-Chairman Amanuel Assefa recently issued a statement along the same lines.

“If the federal government refuses to reinstate TPLF’s recognition, we will revert to Tigray’s pre-Pretoria governance structure—including reconvening the former [Regional] Council—and the Agreement will be rendered void,” he said.

The aggressive rhetoric has observers on edge, and the prospect of renewed conflict in the north is looming larger.

Nearly a year ago, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) told lawmakers the “situation could escalate dangerously—even to the point of war” if TPLF failed to comply with the decisions of the Election Board.

The tensions have not gone unnoticed by the international community.

US Senate hearings on May 13 highlighted concerns over rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with experts urging international pressure to salvage the peace deal.

Michelle Gavin of the Council on Foreign Relations described the Pretoria Agreement as being in a “strange limbo,” citing incomplete implementation and Eritrea’s continued military presence in Tigray.

“Eritrean forces remain present in both Tigray and western Tigray,” Michelle stated, urging greater engagement from AU member states to help resolve the situation. “This violates what all parties have already agreed upon, stemming from the incomplete implementation of the Pretoria Agreement. We’re stuck in this strange limbo where the agreement exists but hasn’t been fully executed.”

Observers warn that the Board’s decision could further destabilize the region, particularly if the TPLF perceives the move as political exclusion.

While political analyst Daniel Berhane argues the ban on the party “doesn’t mean anything right now” and foresees it will have no immediate consequences, he sees the move as a clear sign of the deteriorating relationship between the federal government and TPLF.

He says the repercussions for the Pretoria Agreement do not depend on the party alone.

“One, the federal government might seize this opportunity to void or ignore the agreement, particularly if the EU and Western partners do not exert pressure. Unless it fears the diplomatic repercussions, the federal government could exploit this situation to disregard the Pretoria Agreement,” he told The Reporter. “Second, even if the federal government does not do that and continues to engage with the interim government, the TPLF could act as a spoiler. So, those are the threats concerning the Pretoria Agreement.”

On the other hand, Dejen Mezgebe (PhD), chairman of the Tigray Independence Party (TIP), has accused TPLF of “flirting with the genocidal forces of the Eritrean government”.

“The people of Tigray face the threat of being pulled into a war and once again exposed to another cycle of destruction,” he said. “The TPLF-led Tigray Interim Administration is no longer merely drifting—it is manifesting clear and dangerous signs of becoming wilfully complicit. With no clear and coherent policy or long-term vision, it is now openly flirting with one of the very forces that led the genocidal war against our people: the Eritrean government.”

The standoff leaves the TPLF in legal limbo, unable to operate as a political entity while still asserting its rights under the Pretoria Agreement. If unaddressed, the dispute risks derailing key aspects of the peace deal, including disarmament, transitional justice, and Tigray’s political reintegration.

Daniel sees that although the TPLF has stated its intention to continue its relationship with the federal government as long as the federal government reciprocates its recognition, the two entities are not currently engaging in a meaningful way.

“This will factor into their interaction or relationship down the road. After a week or two, or after a month, they’ll meet at some other juncture, and at that point, it will factor in—complicating matters, serving as an excuse, or escalating the tension between them. However, there is nothing the federal government can do right now to dissolve the TPLF,” he told The Reporter.

Meanwhile, TPLF is urging the African Union to intervene in what it describes as “a direct violation of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement.”

In a formal letter addressed to AU Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf on May 15, the TPLF described the NEBE’s ruling as a “fundamental breach” of the peace deal. It warned that labelling it an “illegal political party” undermines what it claimed were mutual recognition clauses central to the agreement.

“The unilateral decision denies the TPLF a right it had reclaimed through the Pretoria Agreement and poses a serious threat to the foundation of the peace process,” the letter stated.

TPLF accused the federal government of unilaterally reframing a political issue into an administrative matter, enabling the NEBE to issue its revocation. The party argues the decision contravenes the Pretoria Agreement and the AU Peace and Security Council Protocol.

“We have repeatedly requested the convening of a political dialogue under the framework of the Pretoria Agreement,” reads the letter. “Unfortunately, the federal government has demonstrated no willingness to engage, opting instead for unilateral and administrative measures that continue to erode the spirit of peace the Agreement initially rekindled.”

TPLF urged the AU to convene an emergency High-Level Panel session to mediate the dispute over its legal status and to place the issue on the agenda of the AU Peace and Security Council.

It also called on the organization to pressure the Ethiopian government to suspend the NEBE’s decision.

“We respectfully request you to convene an emergency session to mediate the dispute between the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (FDRE) and the TPLF,” reads the letter.