Ensuring Tigray Peace Process Remains On Track

The  revocation  of  the  Tigray People’s  Liberation  Front (TPLF)’s legal status as a political party  by  the  National  Electoral Board  of  Ethiopia  (NEBE)  this week  marks  a  significant  turning point  in  Ethiopia’s  already volatile  political  landscape.  Once a  dominant  force  in  the  ruling coalition  of  Ethiopia’s  federal government,  the  TPLF’s  fall  from grace,  the  ensuing  conflict,  and subsequent  peace  process  have led  to  this  dramatic  political move. While some may see TPLF’s deregistration  as  an  attempt  by the  federal  government  to  assert its  control  and  restore  order,  the revocation raises serious concerns about  the  future  of  political inclusion,  national  unity,  and the  implementation  of  Ethiopia’s fragile peace agreement.

In  November  2020,  Ethiopia’s northern  Tigray  region  became  a battle  ground  for  one  of  the  most devastating  conflicts  in  Africa’s recent  history.  The  war  between the  Tigray  People’s  Liberation Front  (TPLF),  the  federal government  in  Addis  Ababa,  and allied regional forces from Amhara and Eritrea led to the catastrophic loss  of  life,  displacement  of millions,  and  widespread humanitarian suffering. Amid this turmoil,  the  Pretoria  Agreement, brokered  in  November  2022 by  the  African  Union,  brought hopes  of  peace,  stability,  and reconciliation.  The  Pretoria Agreement,  officially  known  as the  Agreement  for  Lasting  Peace through  a  Permanent  Cessation of  Hostilities  (COHA),  was  a landmark  ceasefire  agreement between  the  federal  government and  the  TPLF,  which  had  been the de facto ruling party in Tigray until  the  war.  The  agreement outlined  steps  for  disarmament, the  restoration  of  services, unhindered  humanitarian  access, and  the  reintegration  of  Tigray into  Ethiopia’s  federal  structure. The  revival  of  the  peace  process, though  fragile,  symbolized  a commitment  to  dialogue  and reconciliation  after  years  of violent  conflict.  However,  the recent move to revoke the TPLF’s legal  status  as  a  political  party has  introduced  new  obstacles, threatening to unravel the delicate peace that the agreement sought to establish.

TPLF has decried the revocation as an act that fundamentally violates the  validity  and  integrity  of  the Pretoria  Agreement,  describing NEBE’s decision as a “unilateral” move  by  the  federal  government that  recasts  an  essentially political  issue  as  a  technical  or administrative  issue.  The  NEBE cited  TPLF’s  failure  to  abide by  the  electoral  law  of  2024  that required  the  latter  to  re-register as  a  political  party  following  the Board’s  initial  decision  to  de- register  it  in  January  2021,  to justify  its  decision.  TPLF  though vehemently  argues  that  the peace  deal  imposed  on  the  two sides  the  duty  to  recognize  each other’s legitimacy, adding the deal reinstates  its  pre-war  legal  status de  facto,  making  re-registration  a moot point. In recent months both parties have been trading vitriolic accusations,  blaming  one  another of spreading divisive rhetoric and actively  sabotaging  the  fragile peace prevailing in Tigray.

The  revocation  of  the  TPLF’s legal  status  as  a  political  party undoubtedly has sweeping political and  symbolic  consequences.  The Pretoria  Agreement  was  a  hard- fought compromise, and its success relied on the continued existence of TPLF as a viable political force. Its de-registration thus challenges the very essence of the agreement and leaves it in a limbo, casting serious questions  over  its  sustainability and  implementation.  It  also risks  eroding  the  trust  that  had been  cautiously  built  during  the negotiation  process,  potentially reigniting  conflict  in  Tigray, where  the  TPLF  still  holds significant support. Excluding the TPLF from the political landscape could  prompt  it  to  return  to violence  to  achieve  its  objectives, destabilizing  the  region  and  the nation once again and leading to a breakdown of the peace process. On the humanitarian front the sudden disappearance  of  TPLF  from  the political  scene  is  likely  to  create a  governance  vacuum,  hindering the  efficient  coordination  of humanitarian  and  reconstruction efforts. This would slow down the recovery process for millions of civilians, undermining the goals of the Pretoria Agreement to restore normalcy to the region.

Going  forward  several  key measures  need  to  be  undertaken to  avert  the  destructive  impacts that  the  revocation  of  TPLF’s legal  status  could  induce.  First and  foremost,  the  Ethiopian government  and  TPLF  should display  a  genuine  desire  to sit  down  and  thrash  out  their differences  as  regards  the  TPLF’s de-registration.  This  calls  for  a transparent dialogue facilitated by international  actors,  particularly the African Union (AU), given the critical role it played in brokering the  Pretoria  Agreement.  Its continued  involvement  in monitoring  the  implementation of  the  agreement  will  be  vital  to ensuring  that  the  peace  process remains  on  track.  The  world’s attention must remain focused on Ethiopia  as  the  success  or  failure of this process will have profound implications for the entire Horn of Africa region and beyond.