GERD Geopolitics: End Or Beginning?

Just as the Suez Canal and the Aswan High Dam reshaped Egypt’s destiny, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) promises to redefine Ethiopia’s political economy and diplomatic standing for generations. After more than a decade of construction, the inauguration of Africa’s largest hydropower project marks a monumental national achievement. Yet, it also poses a critical question: does this moment signal the end of a long-standing dispute with Egypt, or the beginning of a more complex and tense geopolitical chapter?

Since its announcement as “Project X,” the GERD has faced staunch opposition from Egypt, which has historically relied on colonial-era treaties to claim near-total control over the Nile’s waters. Cairo has employed a wide array of tactics, from lobbying international financial institutions to deny funding to raising the issue at the United Nations Security Council, framing the dam as an existential threat to regional security.

Now, as Ethiopia prepares to inaugurate the much anticipated project, a debate emerges over what comes next.

Some within Ethiopia argue the dam’s successful completion, without reducing water flow to downstream nations, invalidates Egypt’s core arguments and will see tensions between the two countries cool off.

Others predict the inauguration will be the beginning of an even more tense relationship between Addis Ababa and Cairo. After a decade of focus on the dam’s finalization, Ethiopia’s plans for GERD post-completion are also a subject of interest.

Will Ethiopia build additional dams on the Abay River in its tributaries? Will Ethiopia use the river for irrigation? Will the dam enhance Ethiopia’s diplomatic influence and reposition its interests in fast-changing regional and global geopolitics?

These questions and more hang up in the air ahead of the inauguration ceremony. As far as Ethiopian officials are concerned, the matter is done and dusted.

“The age of [shrinking] is over,” said Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) during an interview with state-affiliated media, filmed on-site with the dam’s massive spillway in full view.

Aregawi Berhe (PhD), a veteran political figure serving as Director-General of the Public Participation Coordination Office for the GERD, equates the national effort behind the construction of the dam to the historic victory at Adwa, calling it a “symbol of Ethiopian unity” funded by over 23.6 billion Birr in public contributions.

“The victory at Adwa was the outcome of the anger and indignation in Ethiopian hearts at the time. GERD is the same. GERD is the second victory at Adwa. GERD is a symbol of Ethiopian unity. We just built Africa’s biggest hydropower dam,” said Aregawi.

He believes the dam will prove favorable for Ethiopia’s diplomatic standing, asserting its completion nullifies arguments for unrecognized colonial-era water treaties and proves that claims made against the dam by downstream countries were baseless.

“We proved Ethiopia’s development cannot be determined by foreign pressure, but by its own citizens,” said Aregawi. “GERD is now finished. Water flow to Egypt was never interrupted. This falsified Egypt’s pretexts. The world also sided with Egypt. International financial institutions refused to finance us. They tried to keep Ethiopia on aid recipient mode. None of all the aid and grants took Ethiopia anywhere.”

He believes the dam signals a shift in how development is approached.

“We proved we can grow on our own. We just started a new development paradigm. Foreign powers can no longer pull strings in the name of development,” said Aregawi.

In-kind and labor contributions bring the total value of public contribution to GERD to around 86 billion Birr, according to the Director-General, who thanked members of their diaspora for their contributions and lobbying efforts.

“GERD is a great example for African nations who were unable to utilize their resources due to colonial powers. They can achieve their development,” said Aregawi.

Professor Yacob Arsano is a leading expert on hydro-politics in Ethiopia who played an important role in negotiations and talks surrounding GERD since the project’s inception. He shares Aregawi’s optimism for Ethiopia’s future prospects and provides a more detailed account of friction with Egypt over the past 14 years.

“My projection regarding future relations between Ethiopia and Egypt is that the tensions between the two countries will settle down. Ethiopia has finalized its work. GERD is finalized. So I believe the diplomatic tension will drop from now on, compared to the tension we have been witnessing so far,” he said.

Yacob described talks surrounding GERD as “always intense” and admonished Egypt for “working relentlessly” to turn the dam into a regional and global security issue on the international stage.

Ethiopia was forced to appear before the UN Security Council dozens of times as a result of Cairo’s unyielding lobbying.

“GERD negotiations were always intense. We cannot say the GERD negotiations were actually  full-fledged negotiations per se because the Egyptians couldn’t come up with tangible and concrete points of discussion during the sessions. They always came to push their own interests and enforce that one-sided interest as a principle,” Yacob told The Reporter.

He noted the Declaration of Principles (DoP) signed by Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan in Khartoum in March 2015 as being one of the only examples of genuine cooperation.

“Negotiations [for the DoP] took four months,” said Yacob, pointing out that even this agreement had issues. “In general, it was good.”

The rest of it, however, was anything but.

“I’ve been part of GERD and all its ups and downs for the past thirteen years. The biggest challenge since its inception has been the rigidness of Egypt and its relentless selfish attempts to pressure Ethiopia into an illogical agreement,” said the expert. “All throughout, Egypt stuck to an old narrative. They did everything to persuade the world; to paint a picture of Egypt as a victim of GERD.”

Egypt’s comparatively vast resources enabled it to enlist media, lobbyists, and people with political influence for its cause, while Ethiopia lacked the institutional capacity and experience to counter the false narratives, according to Yacob.

“Yet, Ethiopia managed to lead the negotiation with capable, consistent and principled negotiators. Ethiopia’s negotiation team never intended to harm Egypt, but also never lost sight of Ethiopia’s burning interest. Ethiopia never had the intention to harm Egypt, nor to reduce the water volume. Egypt’s water levels did not during any of the filings. Sudan also benefited from the regulated flow of the Nile having previously been affected by flooding,” said the expert.

With inauguration day fast approaching, Independent Ethiopian scholars who are outside the government’s framework of thought caution the political ordeal surrounding GERD is likely to grow worse.

A scholar and member of the diplomatic community who spoke to The Reporter anonymously is among those who foresee heightened tensions with Egypt.

“Ethiopia considers the completion of GERD as a green light to build more dams on Abay and even use the river for agricultural projects in the future. Other riparian countries will also start doing the same. This is what Egypt fears. Even more than GERD. Therefore, Egypt will escalate its tactics to achieve three targets. Egypt’s first objective now is to secure a binding agreement with Ethiopia for involvement in the operation and management of GERD. Secondly, Egypt will try to stop Ethiopia from building additional dams on Abay and its tributaries, including preventing their use for irrigation projects. Then Egypt will do everything to stop other riparian countries from carrying out similar projects on the Nile and its tributaries,” the scholar told The Reporter.

He believes the inauguration signals the beginning of a deeper diplomatic war than has been witnessed over the past 14 years.

The scholar observes there are gray areas in Ethiopia’s plans for the dam as well.

“For instance, Ethiopia never affirmed its position when it comes to utilizing Abay for agricultural irrigation projects,” he said, predicting that diverting water for irrigation would lead to direct confrontation between the two countries.

“Egypt also continues to demand a binding agreement to secure its water share. But Ethiopia never affirmed its own water share. How much would that be? Who has the power to decide the volume?” asked the scholar.

Another Ethiopian scholar who was part of the diplomatic team around GERD also believes that tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt will grow more intense.

“Ethiopia built the largest dam possible on Abay; GERD is the largest dam the river can sustain. Egypt tried everything to stop the construction of the dam. Once it is completed, Egypt’s intent is to be involved in the operation and administration of the dam,” he said, speaking anonymously.

The scholar notes that Cairo is desperate to secure a binding agreement that would guarantee water flow levels, even in the face of drought in Ethiopia.

“As long as these questions are there, Egypt’s pressure on Ethiopia will never stop,” said the scholar.

Like his colleague, this expert foresees that Cairo will turn its attention to three major objectives: getting involved in the dam’s operation, stopping additional developments along the river, and securing an agreement that would allow it maintain its “water share” during drought seasons.

Fekahmed Negash Nuru is a seasoned negotiator, strategist, and advocate for regional cooperation on GERD and transboundary water diplomacy. A renowned scholar, Fekahmed has been part of the negotiations surrounding GERD since the beginning.

“Egypt knew their baseless arguments could not bear results so in the end they resorted to different tactics,” said Fekahmed.

Among these tactics, according to the expert, included destabilizing Ethiopia by supporting armed factions within the country.

“They lied, they threatened. Their final option is damaging the dam. But they’ll never go this route,” said the expert.

One of the scholars who spoke to The Reporter cautions that, no matter the case, Ethiopia must prepare to respond to Egypt’s leverage amid fast-changing global geopolitics.

“Since Trump’s second term started, global politics has changed to transactional politics. This system is more advantageous for Egypt than for Ethiopia. Egypt has a lot of leverage to offer Trump. Ethiopia does not, so Ethiopia must not rest now,” said the scholar.

Fekahmed concurs.

“America could not be neutral in GERD’s case. In 1978, Anwar Sadat and the Israeli PM signed the Camp David agreement. Alongside those accords were a bunch of related agreements, including key bilateral deals: one between the US and Egypt, and another between the US and Israel,” he told The Reporter.

“‎Under the US-Egypt agreement, Washington committed to providing Egypt with 1.3 billion dollars’ worth of military aid annually. In return, Egypt accepted recognition of what it calls its ‘historic water share’ of the Nile. In effect, the agreement gave political acknowledgment to Egypt’s claim over the Nile. Since then, the US, as far as it can, has supported that position—not out of neutrality, but because of the binding commitments it undertook.”

Fekahmed observes that Trump and Egyptian President El-Sisi also have a good relationship.

“Trump called El-Sisi ‘my favorite dictator.’ Egypt provided money for Trump’s election campaign,” said the expert.

Yacob observes that Egypt’s attempts to involve the US, the World Bank, and the UN in what it has consistently attempted to frame as a regional and global security issue have failed.

“Egypt continued its arguments based on colonial era treaties. The negotiations froze, and have been stuck for the past several years. Egypt is still asking to be part of GERD’s operation and administration. They demanded this agreement from Ethiopia. Ethiopia refused,” said Yacob.

The expert argues Cairo’s desire to get involved in operation is related to its mission to stop any further development along Abay and its tributaries.

“Ethiopia’s next plan is building additional dams and projects. Such big dams are all ideal along the Abay River and its tributaries like Baro, Akobo and other rivers. Egypt wants to stop Ethiopia from building any additional dams. They believe securing an agreement will stop the construction of additional projects,” said Yacob.

The scholars urge that Ethiopia should work hard on mobilizing allies to counter Egypt’s next volley of pressure.

“Egypt counted on friendly countries to support its cause during the arguments at the UN Security Council. But many heavyweights sided with Ethiopia,” said Yacob. “The future remains tough for Ethiopia. A lot of issues will spiral. Ethiopia must leverage diplomacy to pull as many strings as it can. If Ethiopia can harness its potential, many other countries will benefit. So, the world should support Ethiopia instead of being an obstacle.”

Analysts posit that Ethiopia can muster this leverage by strengthening regional integration and deepening political and economic ties with riparian countries and neighboring nations. They see electricity exports from GERD as a good way to achieve this.

The experts say Ethiopia can also mobilize allies by playing its part in stabilizing the Horn’s rapidly changing and conflict-driven geopolitics.

“From central Africa to the Horn, and from the Red Sea to the Middle East, conflict and instability are surging alarmingly. Every state is descending to conflict. Ethiopia has no option but to outshine as the stabilizer. This way, Ethiopia can attain a significant position in the eyes of the international community and the UN, which will be helpful to counter Egypt’s influences. But if Ethiopia itself continues grappling with domestic conflicts and tensions with neighboring countries, that would be fertile ground for Egypt’s next offensive,” said one diplomat.

Many see GERD as a symbol of national unity with the potential to end the ongoing domestic conflicts. Many also argue the dam has more national consensus than initiatives like the National Dialogue and Transitional Justice.

“GERD is inside the heart of each and every Ethiopian citizen. The dam unified Ethiopians from every walk of life. There were many initiatives aimed at bringing all Ethiopians to unified national consensus. However, GERD unified Ethiopians better than any initiative. No ethnic or linguistic differences have deterred that consensus. No Ethiopian was against the dam,” said Aregawi.