GERD In Spotlight Again As Ethiopia Searches For Footing In Trump’s New World

Over the past couple of weeks, US President Donald Trump has made unsolicited offers to mediate talks
between Ethiopia and Egypt over GERD, pulling the dam and the long-standing dispute between Addis
Ababa and Cairo further into a rapidly evolving scene of complex geopolitics and transactional diplomacy
in the region.
The Trump administration’s antics, which include a new Board of Peace whose seats are up for sale and
plans to rebuild Gaza, are only part of the most recent developments. Confrontation between Saudi Arabia
and the UAE, Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, and tensions with Eritrea also factor in.
Analysts offer their advice on how Ethiopia should look to maneuver its way past this diplomatic tightrope,
and warn about the risks of remaining passive.

Fifteen years after construction first broke ground and barely five months on from its inauguration, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has come once again into the international spotlight amidst increasingly erratic global geopolitics.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump met with his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Switzerland, where he carried on with the inflammatory rhetoric of his first term in office, during which he suggested that Egypt could “blow up the dam.”

This week, Trump pledged much to the Egyptian president regarding Cairo’s opposition to the dam—a dispute Trump said was “just about settled” before he lost in a “rigged election” in 2020.

“But here I am, back. We’ll get it settled,” he said in Davos. “This is a pretty tough situation. A dam was built and the water doesn’t come down to the Nile. When I think of Egypt, I think of the Nile, but I think of the Nile with water in it.”

In characteristic fashion, Trump has announced his intention to act as a mediator in the dispute between Addis Ababa and Cairo. A week before Davos, he addressed a letter to El-Sisi, copied to the PM of Saudi Arabia, president of the UAE, Sudan’s Al-Burhan, and President Taye Atskeselassie, in which he outlined his plans for US-led talks.

“I am ready to restart U.S. mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia to responsibly resolve the question of ‘The Nile Water Sharing’ once and for all,” he wrote in the  letter that also was posted on Trump’s Truth Social account.

Trump added that Washington’s position was that “no state in this region should unilaterally control the precious resources of the Nile, and disadvantage its neighbors in the process,” while also stressing the need for an outcome that secures the long-term water needs of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia.

According to the letter, Trump believes a deal is achievable through “the right technical expertise, fair and transparent negotiations, and a strong United States role in monitoring and coordinating between parties.”

He said such an agreement could “guarantee predictable water releases during droughts and prolonged dry years for Egypt and the Sudan,” while allowing Ethiopia “to generate very substantial amounts of electricity,” some of which could be “given, or sold, to Egypt and/or the Sudan.”

The letter also reflects Trump’s views that the GERD matter could escalate into open conflict.

“I very much hope that this truly understandable dispute over the GERD (DAM!) will not lead to major Military conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia,” he wrote.

Trump repeated false claims that the US funded the dam, and that it has “reduced Egypt’s water supply.”

El-Sisi and Al-Burhan have publicly welcomed Trump’s offer in the days since, but the Ethiopian government has yet to issue a full official response.

Trump’s comments come at a time when the global geopolitical order is witnessing significant shifts, and observers point out that the GERD is only one piece of the puzzle.

 

 

Gaza and Trump’s Peace Board

Last week, Trump also announced the formation of the “Board of Peace,” a personally initiated organization that aims to “promote stability, restore dependable and lawful governance, and secure enduring peace in areas affected or threatened by conflict.”

The US President foresees the board, a permanent seat on which will cost one billion dollars, replacing the UN. Unsurprisingly, Trump will permanently chair the board with the ability to “adopt resolutions or initiatives on its behalf without consulting the board.”

Last week also saw Trump form the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) to implement the next phase of the “Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict.” The committee is reportedly working to restore public service and rebuild civil institutions in Gaza, where more than 70,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces since October 2023.

Trump also appointed a “Commander of the International Stabilization Force (ISF)” to “establish security, preserve peace, and establish a durable terror-free environment, to lead security operations, support comprehensive demilitarization, and enable the safe delivery of humanitarian aid and reconstruction materials.”

Trump is eager to see Middle Eastern powers join his new board and rally behind his plans for Gaza. So far, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Qatar have joined. EU members and the UK have declined the invitation, prompting the US leader to threaten them with massive retaliatory tariffs.

Analysts who spoke to The Reporter conclude that Trump’s newfound interest in GERD is tied to his need for Egyptian favor in alleged plans for the relocations of Palestinians in Gaza. They further claim the relocation could be to Somaliland, which Israel recognized as a sovereign state last month.

Washington’s involvement is an added layer of complexity to rapidly evolving geopolitical tensions in the region.

 In recent weeks, Saudi Arabia has moved against the UAE, threatening to undo years of effort from Abu Dhabi in growing its influence in the Horn and Gulf regions. The UAE now finds its positions in Yemen, Somalia, and Sudan weakened, raising questions about Addis Ababa’s close ties with Abu Dhabi.

Meanwhile, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea/Somalia remain high as Egypt continues its push for leverage over Ethiopia through diplomacy, proxy forces, and internal factions.

The confluence of these political and economic waves has made the future even more unpredictable.

 

Ethiopia in the Middle

Analysts posit that Ethiopia can maneuver its way through the precarity of the situation in a manner that could see the Horn regain a semblance of stability. However, their recommendations stem from their interpretation and contextualization of the relationships between Trump and El-Sisi, the US and the Middle East, Egypt and Ethiopia, and the crumbling “rules-based” world order, which is increasingly being challenged by global middle powers.

“Egypt plays many cards,” said a diplomat and political analyst working at the AU, speaking to The Reporter anonymously. “They maneuver international diplomacy as Africans, as an Arab country, and as caucasians. Egypt works the international community and global diplomacy wearing these hats.”

He claims that Trump’s offer to mediate on the GERD is a reciprocation for El-Sisi’s backing of his plans for Gaza.

“Ethiopia is responding silently,” said the diplomat, pointing to Ethiopian Airlines’ order this week for nine 787 Dreamliners from Boeing.

“The order creates jobs for tens of thousands of Americans. Trump is a transactional politician, he knows the contemporary world so he understands what Ethiopia is offering,” he said.

On the other hand, reports indicate that Egypt is looking for a US-mediated deal to secure its involvement in managing GERD, while obliging Ethiopia to release water during drought seasons, and preventing it from using the dam for irrigation or from building additional dams on the Abbay River.

A senior Ethiopian government advisor cautions the list of demands could soon swell.

“Besides, Trump himself also might demand that Ethiopia grant [the US] projects like natural gas, nuclear, potash, and others. Trump mediated between Rwanda and DRC, then secured mineral deals. Trump will demand something similar from Ethiopia. Plus, since Trump wants to reduce Chinese and Russian presence in Ethiopia, he might ask Ethiopia to snatch the natural gas project from China and give it to American companies. Trump knows the GERD issue is not a game, and he leverages it to gain other offers from Ethiopia and Egypt, using it as a bargaining chip. Trump might even push Ethiopia to recognize Somaliland. Trump clearly indicated he has strong interests in Ethiopia but we are yet to see which ones,” the advisor told The Reporter, speaking anonymously.

Observers note that Ethiopia is already in the process of aligning with US interests, after relations between Addis Ababa and Washington frayed as a result of the two-year northern war.

“Ethiopia is aligning with US interests. Ethiopia just signed Trump’s new health program, which Kenya rejected. In a nutshell, Ethiopia is already in the regional and global political marketplace. But Trump is changing everything into political merchandise. The big point for Ethiopia is assessing its comparative advantages,” said the diplomat. “The US is not backing down even for allies like the EU. So if the US does not like us, they might push Ethiopia into war, be it internal, regional, or proxy. So, Ethiopia must fully comply with US interests, at least in principle.”

Costantinos Berhutesfa (PhD), political economy commentator, also stresses the need for strategic thinking.

“Trump is consolidating regional powers. What he promised to Egypt might change tomorrow. Ethiopia’s position regarding GERD is well-defined, affirmed, and already well-known. There is nothing that should worry Ethiopia. Trump’s latest comments regarding GERD have their own objective. What Trump is targeting is to pressure Ethiopia to allow Egypt to manage the GERD, and also to agree to release water for Egypt during drought seasons. This cannot happen. Trump is also talking about a peace board, and included Somalia and Egypt. Excluding a large country like Ethiopia seems deliberate,” says Costantinos.

He encourages Ethiopia’s leaders to communicate openness to dialogue with Egypt while keeping a firm stance on sovereignty and highlighting progress under the Nile Basin Initiative.

“But aggressive moves like ‘this is our dam, nobody can tell us what to do’ will not work for Ethiopia now,” said Costantinos.

He notes that Cairo’s obsession with GERD stems not from concerns over water, but political mobilization. Earlier this month, El-Sisi stood beside Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud when he told Egyptians that Egypt could turn out as unstable as Somalia without his political leadership.

“The point is, El-Sisi is always presenting himself before the Egyptian people as if he is the only leader capable of resolving the Nile issue and making it as if Egypt would fall into instability without him. El-Sisi is capitalizing on GERD to mobilize his own political support. GERD is not the issue he pretends it is to Egyptians. But Ethiopia lacks the strong diplomacy to tell the world about what El-Sisi is doing,” said Costantinos.

He warned about the dangers of remaining quiet.

“Every day, El-Sisi is telling world leaders that Ethiopia is denying Egypt water. Egyptian lobby groups are pressing US officials every day. But Ethiopia has preferred to remain silent,” said Costantinos. “Nowadays, diplomacy is not about just sending a diplomat that sits in Washington. Ethiopia needs a strong diplomatic team that presses and lobbies Washington, explaining our truth to congressmen and senators.”

He also noted the lack of response from the Ethiopian diaspora in the US.

“Due to the protracted conflicts in Amhara, Oromia and other parts of Ethiopia, the significantly active diaspora community around DC has not been on the same page with the Ethiopian government. This is painting a bad image of the government, so it should peacefully resolve the domestic conflicts and use the diaspora community as diplomatic leverage,” said Costantinos.

He had strong words for what it could mean to go against US interests at a time of great global uncertainty.

“It’s difficult to enter into a quarrel with America now. Look, when Trump took Maduro, even Russia and China did nothing. We live in a time when Trump does whatever he wants,” said Costantinos. “During the Davos summit this week, Trump threatened to impose heavy tariffs on European countries who do not support his decision to snatch Greenland. If Ethiopia refuses dialogue on GERD, Trump will not hesitate doing something worse to us. So, Ethiopia should accept any dialogue on GERD if Trump pushes for it. But Ethiopia must strategically avoid ratifying any agreements on GERD. So we need to use strategic diplomacy that does not say ‘no’ directly, but indirectly, by dragging out time.”