Gofa Zone: Population Density, Environmental Degradation and Absence of Rural Industrialization

Tsegaye Tegenu, PhD
2024-07-27

I am deeply saddened to hear about the devastating landslide that recently struck the Gofa Zone. My heart goes out to all those affected by this tragic event. Please accept my heartfelt condolences during this incredibly difficult time.

The loss of lives, homes, and livelihoods is unimaginable, and I cannot begin to fathom the pain and sorrow the people of the Zone are experiencing. In the face of such a calamity, words often fall short of providing the comfort and solace needed. However, I want you to know that you are in my thoughts and research studies.

I was warning about the dangerous of high population density in the area. This disaster underscores the importance of addressing and mitigating the risks associated with densely populated regions, and it is a stark reminder of the need for ongoing efforts to ensure the safety and well-being of all communities.

In Southern Ethiopia, the population density, calculated as the number of households per cultivated agricultural land is high compared to other regions of Ethiopia. According to my calculation based on CSA (2006) agricultural data, the population density in Gofa Zone was 128 households per 100 hector. There are more than 15000 households with average household size of 5.3. See Population Pressure and Regional Development Disparities in Ethiopia: Case of Southern Region annexed table).

Due to high level of household density, access to land in the Zone is limited compared to other regions. As a result, households intensify agriculture on small plot of land using different livelihood strategies (for details see Population Pressure and Dynamics of Household Livelihoods in an Ethiopian Village. The southern regions have experienced a large youth cohort, which was about 40-70 percent of the adult population, while the central regions have cohort size of 20-40 percent of the adult population. (for details see Youth Bulge, Policy Choice, Ideological Trap and Domestic Political Unrest in Ethiopia).

High population density and agricultural intensification on small plots of land lead to significant environmental degradation. In the Gofa Zone, the land is scarce and the need to produce sufficient food for dense populations is high, in addition to the demand for jobs. Intensive farming on small plots can lead to soil exhaustion, and clearing land for agriculture reduces natural habitats, leading to loss of biodiversity. High population pressure can drive the conversion of forests into agricultural land. Deforestation contributes to loss of biodiversity, increased carbon emissions, and altered water cycles.

High population density and agricultural intensification can significantly increase the risk of landslides, particularly in hilly or mountainous regions. This is particularly true in regions with specific topographical and climatic conditions. The vegetation due to intensification practice absorbs significant amounts of water. Without it, the soil becomes oversaturated during heavy rains, increasing the risk of landslides. Building homes, roads, and other structures on unstable slopes can increase the weight and stress on the soil, leading to landslides.

I suggest expanding industrialization in rural towns as a solution to release high population density. This strategy aims to create employment opportunities for the youth bulge, diversify the economy, and improve living standards, thereby reducing the pressure on agricultural land and potentially alleviating environmental degradation.

Establishing industries in rural towns can create employment opportunities, reducing the dependency on agriculture and alleviating poverty. Small scale industrial jobs often offer higher wages compared to subsistence farming, improving the economic well-being of rural residents. By providing alternative employment, rural industrialization can reduce the pressure on agricultural land and slow down environmental degradation.

Rural industrialization in China (Township and Village Enterprises in the 1970s and 1980s) and India (Small-Scale and Cottage Industries) has been a significant aspect of their economic development strategies. Both high population growth countries have used different approaches and policies to promote industrial growth in rural areas, which have yielded various outcomes in terms of economic development, poverty alleviation, and social transformation. Both countries continue to evolve their strategies to promote sustainable and inclusive rural industrialization.

Ethiopia needs a visionary leader and strong institutions to expanding industrialization in rural towns to effectively address high population density and reduce environmental degradation. This calamity is a poignant reminder of the urgent need for effective and proactive measures to ensure the safety and well-being of all communities, particularly those in vulnerable areas. It is my sincere hope that this heartbreaking event will serve as a powerful lesson for policymakers and authorities, compelling them to take decisive actions to prevent such tragedies in the future.

In these moments of profound loss, it is also essential to honor the memories of those who have been lost. Their legacies will live on in the hearts of those who knew and loved them, and their sacrifices will hopefully inspire meaningful change in development strategies and policies.