The federal government has been engaged in secretive negotiations with armed groups in the Amhara and Oromia regions, disclosed the Prime Minister during discussions with government officials and banking executives on August 1, 2024.
“It’s been a while since we started negotiations and peace talks with armed forces in the Amhara Regional State,” said Abiy Ahmed (PhD). “Because the forces are headed by different leaders, we’ve had to talk to each of them one at a time. When one leader agrees, the other disagrees. But the fact is we are still in continuous communication with forces in Amhara. The leaders are in talks with the government, but they have diverging positions.”
The PM expressed hope of reaching peace agreements if the talks go smoothly. Talks with OLF-Shane have also continued, according to Abiy.
“The same is true with Shane. The Shane, armed groups in Oromia, are also led by more than one leader under different groups. Since these groups have different positions, we are in talks with some sects. The major factor that is hindering agreement with those forces is that they consist of different groups, so agreeing with one sect does not lead to an agreement with the whole armed force,” said the PM. “We’ve been conducting these negotiations secretly. Our position is just like in Tigray. We could enter Mekelle and control Tigray but we negotiated and reached an agreement with Tigray forces. We did so thinking it would be better to save whatever life is left in Tigray at the time.”
Although some analysts see the PM’s disclosure as a potential catalyst for the talks, others observe there are still some issues.
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Iyachew Teshale is the spokesperson of the Amhara Peace Council, which was established by the government to facilitate the peace talks.
“Through the Council, we have been in communication with Fano leaders. However, there are two major problems. The first is we have been unable to find Fano leaders that can represent the whole Fano armed group. We’ve been in talks with individual leaders but the government cannot negotiate with individuals. Therefore we’ve been pushing for them to assign a representative that can represent the whole Fano,” said Iyachew.
He told The Reporter the second pressing issue is that Fano leaders have been requesting, as a precondition for talks, that the federal government explicitly announces its willingness to negotiate. The Council is a regional institution and Fano leaders want confirmation directly from the federal government, according to Iyachew.
He disclosed the Council had written a letter conveying the demand to the federal government.
“That’s why the Prime Minister explicitly acknowledged the efforts. This is a good step,” Iyachew told The Reporter.
Still, the dilemma of finding an official representative for the armed group remains a challenge, according to the spokesperson.
“We need official representatives from the armed groups. We negotiate with them as an institution, not as individuals. Before, the Fano leaders were suspicious that we were trying to negotiate with individuals as a way to create factions among them. This is wrong. We are working with pure and genuine intentions to ensure a peaceful resolution. We are the most impartial institution acting between the government, the armed groups, and the public,” said Iyachew.
There are no clear indications on the status of talks with OLF-Shane following the failure of two rounds of talks in Tanzania last year. During an Oromia Regional Council (Chaffee) meeting a week ago, Shimelis Abdissa, president of the regional state, said efforts were being made to “eliminate the group.”
“We are conducting operations to annihilate the group. We are reorienting and training thousands of former members captured during operations and also those who surrendered peacefully,” said Shimelis.
During the briefing on Thursday, the PM referred to “several incidents” that could reverse the Pretoria agreement and potentially see the return of armed conflict to Tigray.
“We’ve been provoked in Tigray over the last few months. There were several incidents intended to provoke us into taking unnecessary action. We sat down for discussions several times to avoid any clashes. We took part in more than 10 discussions in Tigray over the last three months, all to avoid clashes and conflict,” said Abiy.
The PM, however, refrained from disclosing who exactly was behind the alleged provocations.
“We believe many questions will be answered under the inclusive national dialogue,” he said.
Nonetheless, some analysts argue the PM’s comments regarding the negotiations in Amhara and Oromia do not match the reality on the ground. Insiders also relate the comments to recent agreements with the IMF.
“Conflict in Amhara and Oromia was among the major issues that have been delaying the IMF program and debt restructuring negotiations. The US has been airing concerns over the protracted conflicts in Amhara and Oromia. The IMF had previously stated it would take Washington’s concerns about the conflicts before approving the program for Ethiopia. Resolving the conflicts is one of the preconditions set out in the agreement with the IMF. The Prime Minister’s comments this week are just part of showing commitment to that precondition,” said one analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity.
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