The prospect of instability is once again looming large over the Tigray region. As the region continues to grapple with the destructive impacts of the 2020-2022 war, the recent schism between the leaders of the region’s ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) threatens to plunge it into a crisis that has significant implications not only for the future of the Tigray region itself, but also Ethiopia’s political landscape. It may be too early to predict how the split eventually plays out. Nevertheless, one thing is certain: the long-suffering people of Tigray are going to bear the brunt of the bitter disagreement riving the TPLF’s leadership.
The root cause of the division can be traced to the 14th Congress of the TPLF, which got underway on August 13, amid a mounting controversy and the pointed absence of over a dozen prominent TPLF leaders, led by the deputy chairperson and president of the Interim Administration of Tigray Region. The row between two factions of the party, headed by the chairman and his deputy, respectively, has developed into naked hostility, with each side trading accusations of all manners of grave improprieties. The deputy chairperson criticized the congress as being “…hastily organized, flouting due process, lacking consensus, and endangering both the party and the people of Tigray.” He claimed that its purpose is solely aimed at purging leaders who are at odds with the organizers. Observers agree that the acrimony, which is reminiscent of the 2001 leadership falling-out that had threatened to tear the party asunder, is essentially a manifestation of the power struggle between the opposing factions.
Aside from jeopardizing Tigray’s internal unity, the TPLF’s insistence on going ahead with the congress has the potential to exacerbate the delicate political situation of Ethiopia. On the eve of the event the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) made clear in no uncertain terms it will not recognize the congress and any decisions it passes, saying it was slated to be held in contravention of two key legally mandated requirements—the TPLF failed to notify the Board 21 days in advance of the meeting and did not allow representatives of the board to attend as observers. The NEBE’s pre-emptive admonition came as its dispute with the TPLF over the latter’s recognition as a duly registered party shows no sign of ending any time soon. On August 9 the Board decided to confer on TPLF a certificate legal personality as a new political party “under special circumstances”, citing a June 2024 proclamation governing the granting of legal recognition to political groups with a history of violent activities. The decision did not sit well with the TPLF though given it had long demanded the unconditional reinstatement of its pre-war legal status. It’s not clear at this juncture if the impasse can be resolved to the satisfaction of both sides.
More worrying than the electoral board’s announcement, however, is a statement issued by the Minister of Government Communication Service on the day the congress kicked off. The minister warned that proceeding with the congress was akin to robbing the Tigray people of the relative peace they have come to enjoy. Accusing the TPLF of repeated displays of disregard for law and order, he said it has set itself on the path to destruction. He went on to blame the party of persistently chipping away at the Pretoria Agreement, which he noted requires of it to strictly abide by the procedures and laws of federal institutions, adding the TPLF’s latest move in effect sounded the death knell for its obligations under the agreement. The minister’s conclusion of his warning his with a not-too-subtle reminder that the TPLF bears sole responsibility for the ensuing destruction has left many, including international mediators who brokered the peace deal, fretting if Ethiopia could potentially witness a repeat of one of the most horrendous chapters in its history.
As tensions within the ruling elite of Tigray as well as between the Tigray region and the federal government escalate, the implications spell trouble for the region and beyond. On the one hand the ongoing political instability stemming from the TPLF split can hinder efforts to address the sociopolitical and economic crises in Tigray. The region has faced severe humanitarian challenges due to conflict, and the division may delay recovery efforts, development initiatives, and the rebuilding of infrastructure. As communities look for stability and support, disunity in leadership can exacerbate socioeconomic difficulties, making recovery more arduous. On the other hand, it complicates the fragile peace prevailing in the region by prolonging the instability there and possibly spreading unrest to other regions of Ethiopia, particularly if clashes were to occur between the feuding sides. If the leaders of TPLF truly have at heart the interest of the people they claim to stand for, it is incumbent on them to prioritize internal dialogue and reconciliation among its factions to mend divisions. At the same time they need to do their part, along with the federal government, to foster a better relationship and thereby promote peace and reconciliation endeavors. It’s only then that restoring unity, stability, and resilience in a region that has endured profound ordeals can be realistically achieved.
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