Hidden Hands Behind Incendiary Ethiopia-Eritrea Rhetoric

Empty Bluffs or Drums of an Inevitable War?

The exchange of yet another round of hostile rhetoric between the governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea this week and the widening rift between political leaders in Addis Ababa and Mekelle have heightened fears of renewed conflict in the north.

Exactly seven years after Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki visited Addis Ababa at the invitation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) in what was then hailed as an end to decades of enmity between the two countries, the two leaders find themselves in an escalating dispute that threatens to erupt in violence.

Although relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara began to sour during the two-year northern war—in which Eritrea participated on the side of the federal government—tensions have steadily risen over the past two years alongside Ethiopia’s efforts to gain access to the Red Sea, while a deepening feud between the Prosperity Party administration and the former TPLF only adds complexity to a volatile situation.

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The escalation of tensions was on display again this week as President Isaias Afwerki accused Ethiopia of preparing to wage war on Eritrea in an interview with Eritrean media on July 19, 2025.

His comments were in response to a recent letter from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the UN Secretary-General, likewise accusing Eritrea of preparing for war with Ethiopia. Isaias refuted the claim during the interview, alleging instead that Ethiopia is busy procuring weapons en masse.

“They [Ethiopia] claim they have tacit endorsement from France, the US, and the UAE et cetera for their war agenda; but this is not entirely true. How can anyone accuse Eritrea while procuring weapons and resorting to daily saber-rattling?” asked Isaias, who recently marked his 32nd year in Asmara’s presidential office.

This week also saw reports of skirmishes near the border region of Bure, although this has not been verified by independent bodies.

At the core of Eritrea’s concerns lies Ethiopia’s growing interest in securing access to the sea. Analysts who have been following the developments closely say that after Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland stalled, Eritrea began to view Addis Ababa’s ambitions as a perceived threat.

The strain and unease has already had a ripple effect in the region, as Egypt has been quick to join Eritrea in arguing that countries without a coast on the Red Sea do not have a right to an outlet.

More worryingly, the ongoing friction and geopolitical realignment interface with growing tensions in Tigray.

Despite decades of hostility towards one another, which culminated in not one but two wars, members of the now federally unrecognized Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and officials in Asmara have reportedly forged a new alliance against the federal government. Tigrayan officials recently opened the border (partially) with Eritrea, lending credence to these reports.

Meanwhile, the relations between Tigray’s political leaders and the federal government continue to deteriorate.

A few weeks ago, while addressing Parliament, PM Abiy urged elders and religious leaders to travel to Tigray and persuade the region’s administrators to reconsider their stance.

The PM said there was a need to “act immediately” to prevent Tigray from entering into conflict for the second time in less than five years, hinting that theories about an imminent conflict may not be unfounded.

During a military ceremony in Jimma on July 21, Field Marshal Berhanu Jula repeatedly stated the TPLF was on a trajectory towards conflict and urged the group to change direction. Berhanu also accused TPLF of hiding heavy weaponry and refusing to take part in the Disarmament, Demobilization, and Rehabilitation (DDR) process stipulated in the 2022 Pretoria Agreement.

The Field Marshal accused the group of moving to “unearth the weapons it had buried” and called on its leaders to hand over the artillery to federal forces, stating that no other regional administration held that level of weaponry.

Sources close to the issue told The Reporter that armed forces aligned with the TPLF are gearing up to retake territories like Wolkait and Raya, which were effectively annexed during the last round of conflict.

The sources claim the alliance with Asmara is largely rooted in the desire to regain control of these territories as Tigray’s leaders lose faith in the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement.

Analysts observe the situation and its implications go far beyond Ethiopia and Eritrea or the wider Horn Region, with Gulf nations, Egypt, the US, and other geopolitical forces continuing to pull the strings behind the escalating tensions.

Whether these tensions will result in war or constitute a bluff, however, is up to debate.

“Eritrea is reportedly beefing up its military and inciting skirmishes in border areas, especially Rama. Coupled with the Red Sea politics, a deadly war will probably break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Geopolitical alliances in the Horn have also changed. Meanwhile, tensions between Tigray and federal officials are also escalating,” a regional peace and security analyst told The Reporterspeaking anonymously.

Among the shifting alliances, the expert notes, is the relationship between Mekelle and Asmara.

“Even if Eritrea does not directly support the TPLF, it would at least not fight with it because Asmara’s priority right now is the federal government. Tigray’s officials are loud about this new alliance with Asmara,” the expert told The Reporter.

As Eritrea is behind the TPLF, Egypt is backing Asmara, according to the expert.

“Trump is also repeatedly fabricating claims stating the US funded GERD [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam}. Trump might start pressuring Ethiopia if Egypt agrees to accommodate Palestinians suffering from Gaza. Trump might go far to show his allegiance to Israel. This might also fuel the pressure on Ethiopia. Trump and Egypt might use regional proxy forces like Eritrea to destabilize Ethiopia. But it’s not clear what Egypt will gain, since GERD has been finalized,” said the expert.

During his most recent parliamentary appearance, PM Abiy announced the dam will be inaugurated at the end of the rainy season, likely some time in September. He also invited the leaders of all Nile riparian countries, including Egypt, to attend the inauguration ceremony.

To the expert, the combination of all these factors makes war inevitable.

“The big question now is: Can anyone avert this upcoming war?” he said.

The expert referred to reports this week that former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and veteran Nigerian statesman Olusegun Obasanjo have been unable to move forward with mediation efforts to resolve the complications surrounding the implementation of the African Union-brokered peace deal.

“Uhuru and Obasanjo attempted to speak with Tigrayan officials recently. However, sources tell me they could not go to Tigray,” said the security analyst.

Tigray’s political leaders want a preliminary meeting with the two mediators before committing to further negotiations with the federal government, according to the analyst.

“They are angry that the AU-led Pretoria Agreement could not be implemented due to AU reluctance and obedience to the federal government,” he told The Reporter.  “Tigray’s officials are flashing a red light over the return of territories like Wolkait and Raya. The federal government is flashing a red light over Tigray’s alliance with Eritrea. Right now, it looks like all forces are on the verge of crossing a line.

Although the priority appears to be the return of territory, the analyst posits there are other factors at play that are just as important, if not more so.

“The primary objective of the Tigrayan forces is not the return of Wolkait or the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement. Their biggest target is to maintain the economic dominance forged by TPLF officials and military officers during the Tigray war,” argues the analyst.

He notes that Tigray’s political and military elite control lucrative and widespread illicit trade networks in commodities like gold and sesame, as well as dealing in human and arms trafficking.

The analyst’s claims are reflected in a June 2025 report from The Sentry, a US-based non-governmental organization that specializes in investigations into violent conflict and kleptocracy.

Titled ‘Power and Plunder: The Eritrean Defence Forces Intervention in Tigray’, it highlights involvement of TPLF affiliates and Eritrean military officers in the region’s underground trade and cautions the conditions, particularly surrounding gold, have led to violence, environmental degradation, and public health and safety concerns, among other things.

“As of now, Tigray’s officials have no valid political aim but to maintain their economic gains through destabilization. So they forged an alliance with Asmara and Cairo. But the major player in this chess match is Eritrea,” said the analyst.

The expert concludes the administrations of both Tigray and Eritrea are dependent on manufacturing conflicts in a bid to survive.

“It’s difficult to avoid this war through international pressure. Both Tigray and the federal government have lost diplomatic currency with the international community,” said the analyst. “Since the Pretoria Agreement was signed, the international community has been calling for DDR. Because that failed, Tigray has managed to rebuild its strength.”

The analyst foresees that if war should break out again, Tigray may have access to a consistent supply of weapons and ammunition from Egypt via Sudan.

“They won’t run out of weapons this time, unlike the last war,” said the expert.

A seasoned diplomat who has also been keeping a close eye on the developments has another take.

“It’s all about interests. Isaias is a supremacist; a difficult leader. He wants to be the anchor state in the Horn. He sees himself as the seasoned veteran, the eldest geopolitical player and wants to sit at the head of the table,” the diplomat told The Reporter, speaking anonymously,

He noted the President’s guile was on display during his interview last week.

“Unlike his previous interviews, Isayas warms up to the AU and the United States this time, speaking as if he is concerned about African unity, regional integration, and collaboration with the US. He is only saying this because he wants their support this time to undermine Ethiopia,” said the diplomat.

During the interview, Isaias also spoke about alleged previous attempts by PM Abiy to shift Ethiopia’s international trade corridor from Djibouti to Assab.

“[Isaias] is intentionally trying to fuel conflict between Ethiopia and Djibouti. In a nutshell, he is angry because he’s been pushed away by the world and has insulated himself in closed politics for too long. He thought of himself as the virtuous leader of a regional anchor state, but when everybody pushed him away, he understood the world views him as a dictator and became bitter,” said the diplomat.

The only leverage Isaias has at hand, according to the diplomat, is Eritrea’s strategic location, which makes it attractive to military powers like the US, UAE, and Qatar, particularly in light of operations against forces in Somalia, Yemen, or the Red Sea.

“If Isaias had secured the green light from these countries, Eritrea would immediately launch a war against Ethiopia. However, those countries are not ready to create another deadly war in the Horn. The UAE is already implicated in the Sudan war. The world is also busy and confused with how to handle the cases of Ukraine, Gaza, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, and others,” said the foreign service veteran.

The diplomat claims that western countries would prefer to see neither war nor peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

“They want the ongoing bluffs between Asmara and Addis Ababa to continue, without actual war,” he said.

The diplomat observes that Ethiopia’s move to sea access has also complicated the case.

“This announcement was untimely, I believe. The Red Sea is a sensitive topic globally, for all countries who use this route. Immediately after Ethiopia disclosed its interest, the diplomatic community silently started expressing their distaste and pressure on Ethiopia to drop the interest,” he told The Reporter.

The diplomat argues that Ethiopia should have put more effort and resources into lobbying potential allies before publicly disclosing its interests on the Red Sea.

“Because Ethiopia did not do so, it backfired and many countries rejected the idea. Now we’re in a big debacle. The disclosure came after the Tigray war. So Ethiopia’s diplomacy went from war to rhetoric. Many saw it as uncalculated. Even the Somaliland MoU was an uncalculated announcement, and it backfired similarly. These all made Ethiopia more vulnerable. Even small countries like Djibouti, Somalia, Kenya, and Eritrea started looking down on Ethiopia. The repercussions persist,” said the diplomat.

Among these repercussions is Ethiopia being forced to stick to reserved and silent diplomacy, according to the expert.

“Under this context, where there is limited backing from the global diplomatic community, Ethiopia cannot dare to go to direct war with Eritrea,” he told The Reporter.

Nonetheless, the two will likely take part in confrontations and indirect proxy engagements, according to the diplomat.

The rhetoric, weapons purchases, accusations, skirmishes and tensions will likely continue.

As for the Gulf’s involvement in the growing tensions in the Horn, the diplomat cautions that nobody can afford to see Ethiopia and Eritrea go to war.

“The UAE is behind Eritrea. UAE does not want to start another war in the Horn after being implicated in the Sudan crisis. The Gulf region is also on fire. The UAE and its neighbors don’t have the luxury to set another fire in the Horn. The Gulf continues arming both Eritrea and Ethiopia, all to keep their interests in balance. But if this war starts, there will be no way out,” he warned.

He highlights that the Gulf is not the only player with vested interests.

“Though east and west powers are always in confrontation, when it comes to the Red Sea, they work together. They exchange military intelligence and maritime security information. The East and West protect the Red Sea for the sake of their own interests,” says the diplomat.

He observes that while US President Donald Trump’s “reckless” policies may threaten this delicate balance, things are not likely to spiral out of control as long as the world adapts to Washington’s transactional politics.

“If the US moves alone, conflict might erupt. But Trump operates in mercantile diplomacy, which is give and take. In a nutshell, no one moves to destabilize the Horn because the Red Sea is everyone’s interest,” said the diplomat.

Constantinos Berhutesfa, a political analyst and commentator and former anti-graft commissioner at the AU, is also keeping watch on developments in Addis Ababa and Asmara. He warns that “a single mistake” can lead to a full-blown war.

“The Ethiopian government never indicated it would move to secure sea access through force, but Eritrea is gearing up its military for war. Reports indicate it has fortified its border with Ethiopia,” said Constantinos. “The ongoing rhetoric indicates we are going to war. People are worried.”

He observes the potential involvement from the UAE and spillover from ongoing conflicts in Sudan and the Amhara region serve only to complicate the situation. Constantinos is also alarmed by the accusations laid out against the TPLF by Field Marshal Berhanu Jula this week.

“Starting this conflict needs a lot of thought because ending it would be impossible,” said Constantinos, urging caution. “A single mistake can escalate this tension to war.”