Northern Tensions On The Rise: Where Is It All Headed?

Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are escalating, marked by mutual accusations and strategic positioning along their shared border. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of territorial violations, while Eritrea claims Ethiopia harbors unlawful ambitions toward its ports, citing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s discussions on port access.

Speaking before Parliament on Thursday, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s was asked by a member of parliament if his country would go into war with Eritrea for access to the sea. “How long would it take if you ordered Field Marshal Berhanu Jula (the Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian army) and Demelash Gebremichael (Commissioner General of the Ethiopian Federal Police) to bring the port. The question seemed all a quip and it stirred chuckles from the parliamentarians.

But the answer from the prime minister was as stern as it was pointed tinged with irony.

“We have a development progress to protect and there is no reason for us to enter into war. Ethiopia won’t shoot at its neighbor,” he said.

The geopolitics bringing Ethiopia and Eritrea at loggerheads, though, is complicated. The Reporter’s Abraham Tekle makes an effort at peeling the numerous layers to it

– Advertisement –

Two weeks ago, the residents of towns and villages straddling the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea headed to Zalambessa, where activists and community leaders had organized a temporary re-opening of the border.

There, communities that have been separated from one another for five years or more were able to celebrate a reunion of sorts that saw friends and relatives gather on the heavily militarized border.

The scenes mirrored the rapprochement of 2018, which, albeit temporarily, saw the two countries reconcile decades of enmity in the wake of Abiy Ahmed’s ascent to power. Despite the similarities, the latest show of camaraderie took place under a completely different set of circumstances.

In recent months, Ethiopia and Eritrea have engaged in a series of diplomatic exchanges that signal escalating tensions between the neighboring Horn of Africa nations. The deterioration in relations, which gained momentum following the end of the Tigray war, has now entered a new phase marked by mutual accusations, closed-door diplomacy, and strategic positioning across the disputed frontier.

The latest developments have revolved around a complaint lodged by Ethiopia to the United Nations (UN) and to several heads of state.

In a letter to the UN, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Eritrea of “continued provocations and violations” of its territorial integrity.

Asmara responded by calling the allegations a “blatant lie” and accusing Ethiopia of harboring “unlawful ambitions” concerning Eritrean ports.

The government of Isaias Afwerki claims the Ethiopian leadership, particularly under the ruling Prosperity Party, has been openly discussing port access with language suggesting it could pursue its goals “militarily if necessary”.

According to the Eritrean government, these efforts aim to legitimize Ethiopia’s intention to gain sea access via Eritrean territory.

The fresh exchange of statements marks the latest step in what has been several years of significant deterioration in relations between the two nations.

Addis Ababa’s long-running dream of reaching the sea has troubled its neighbor, and recent comments from Ethiopian leaders have sharpened Eritrea’s suspicions.

Just months ago, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) positioned Ethiopia’s need for direct port access, framing it as an “economic necessity”.

Eritrea, however, perceives this as a threat to its sovereignty.

This narrative is reinforced by statements made by the Eritrean President during Eritrea’s 34^th anniversary since it seceded from Ethiopia in 1993.

Addressing the nation, he insisted that “no force can undermine Eritrea’s sovereignty,” and pledged to put national independence and regional cooperation grounded in mutual respect at the top of the government’s agenda.

Although the speech avoided a direct mention of Ethiopia, most observers took the words as a response to recent Ethiopian discourse on port access.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s assertion arrives just as observers note a spike in cross-border movements and military maneuvers along the shared frontier. In addition, the border between the Tigray region and Eritrea, particularly at crossings such as Zalambessa, remains a critical flashpoint.

The reopening of this crossing in late June 2025 has raised concerns among federal authorities in Addis Ababa about the potential for renewed influence by Eritrea in Tigrayan affairs.

Beyond security concerns, regional economic networks have also become points of contention between the two nations.

A June 2025 report from The Sentry, a US-based non-governmental organization that specializes in investigations into violent conflict and kleptocracy, reiterates accusations that the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) are still operating within Ethiopian territory. This continued presence is notable as it persists even after the official end of hostilities in the Tigray war, according to the report.

Titled ‘Power and Plunder: The Eritrean Defence Forces Intervention in Tigray’, the report details how EDF units retained positions in northern Tigray and describes their involvement in illicit trade, human trafficking, and smuggling activities across the new de-facto border.

Despite official claims of full withdrawal, the report stated that Eritrean troops have been observed operating within a 10-kilometer buffer south of the previous de facto boundary, in zones unassigned to Eritrea by the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission.

The Sentry indicates that Eritrean and Ethiopian entities are entangled in illicit trading operations involving gold and sesame, particularly in border regions such as Shire and Badme.

These exchanges, according to the report, not only fuel tension but also entrench economic interdependence shaped by “unregulated markets and informal actors.”

“Tigray’s illicit gold trade presents an illustrative example of the new dynamics at play along the Ethiopia-Eritrean border,” reads the report. “With illegal markets offering significantly more profit than the official trade, however, the scale of gold smuggling was prodigious, even shortly before the conflict. With parts of Tigray still under the control of the EDF, including multiple areas officially licensed for exploration by the federal government’s Ministry of Mining in 2023, competition over gold had grown increasingly complex and violent.”

The report cited that a broad range of actors have been involved in the trade, including a number of “senior TDF officers, fighters loyal to them, and a growing number of Chinese nationals”.

Eritrea’s military support to Amhara regional forces and the Fano militia has further complicated the situation, according to the report.

Citing a recent Chatham House publication, the Sentry report indicates that lucrative trade in sesame has become one factor of competition.

Wrangling over control of the sesame trade in Western Tigray involves a range of actors, including Eritrean forces, and serves as a means of payment for protection, according to the report.

“With indications that shipments of sesame and other goods from Amhara-controlled Western Tigray/Welkait to Eritrea have been used as payment in kind for Eritrean forces’ protection, training and support of Amhara Fano militias,” it reads.

It added that the dependence on Eritrean military support to facilitate the illicit trade enables EDF officers engaged in the trade to impose financial terms that are “vastly in their favor”, as sesame from Tigray makes its way into Eritrea without going through customs authorities.

However, condemning the claims as “boringly the same pattern of defamation”, Eritrea’s Minister of Information, Yemane Gebremeskel, described the report as an attempt to “fabricate a defamatory story” in league with major Intelligence agencies.

“This is the modus operandi of the subtly crafted echo chamber: the closed loop of defamation and disinformation,” he stated in a social media post on July 1.

Asmara consistently asserts that its forces are deployed strictly within Eritrean borders, serving solely to protect national interests.

Nonetheless, Teame Aredom, a politician and a member of the recently formed Tigray Democratic Solidarity (Simret) party said that Eritrean forces were “directly” involved during the war in Tigray by orchestrating the “genocidal” act against its people.

He argued that the continued presence of Eritrean Forces and other non-Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) entities in the Tigray region violates the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the brutal northern war in late 2022.

During a recent interview with The Reporter, Teame argued the federal government had “deserted Ethio-Eritrea border areas,” allowing EDF forces to “loot, kill civilians, and rape Tigrayan women until today.”

“The federal government failed in its responsibility to execute the peace agreement,” he said.

Teame lays equal blame on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which he argues is just as responsible for the failure to implement the terms of the Pretoria Agreement.

“The recent killings committed by EDF forces in the Zalambessa area happened because of the poor implementation of the agreement,” said Teame.

He accused Eritrean forces of spearheading the dismantling and destruction of Tigray’s economy during the two-year war.

Teame’s accusations are reflected in The Sentry’s report, which highlights a growing body of evidence indicating Eritrea’s leaders actively planned the war. Its authors claim that Asmara anticipated its outbreak months before fighting began, aiming to identify economic sites and transport their assets back to Eritrea.

“From the outset of the War, the EDF engaged in large-scale and systematic looting. The scale of the looting and economic destruction wrought on the region was unprecedented,” reads the report.

The fragile peace in the region is now being tested not only by military posturing and economic friction but also by internal dynamics within Ethiopia.

The recent opening of the Zalambessa crossing is seen by some as a political gesture from the TPLF officials aimed at normalizing relations with Eritrea. However, the federal government reportedly views it as an unauthorized move that could signal divergence from Pretoria Agreement commitments.

For observers, this decision has heightened concerns that Eritrea’s involvement in Tigray, both historically and in its current post-conflict presence, could reignite federal suspicions of secessionist aims or foreign interference.

They also highlight the potential for spillover effects on Ethiopia’s internal politics, as the prospect of coordinated action or political alignment between Asmara and Mekelle alarms Addis Ababa.

During a recent discussion with political party leaders and representatives, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) emphasized that no “power in the world could threaten the country’s territorial integrity.”

“I can assure you,” he said, referring to unnamed forces, “that no power can dismantle Ethiopia’s territorial integrity—instead, it will be your downfall.”

Following the end of the northern war with a peace agreement and the departure of Getachew Reda’s Interim Administration (TIA), the TPLF—once a dominant federal force—has retained its regional influence. 

Recent reports indicate that TPLF leaders, including Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD), inaugurated the construction of a new road linking Ihsa’a—a town in Adwa—to Eritrea, signaling efforts to normalize relations with the neighboring country. 

In addition, in a recent interview with a regional broadcaster, General Yohannes Wolde Giorgis, also known as John Medid, stressed that achieving peace does not “depend on anyone’s permission, particularly not the federal government’s.”

“Peaceful coexistence with our neighbors—Eritrea, Amhara, and Afar—reflects the significant strides we are making toward our objective,” he said, claiming that the grassroots peace and reconciliation movement, led by the people of Tigray and Eritrea, has gained strong momentum.

For political figures and experts, however, the resumption of the political rapprochement between Asmara and Mekelle raises a critical question of whether the region is sliding back toward conflict. 

“Mekelle’s desire to return to normalcy can be politically intoxicating,” said an expert, speaking to The Reporter anonymously.

The expert argues that such a desire, manifesting as overtures toward Eritrea, are a “premature” act that bypass public mandate, institutional process, and strategic coherence.

“These gestures do not arise from structured diplomacy or reciprocal peace processes; they emerge instead from a fragmented political landscape shaped more by elite competition than by collective strategy,” he said.

Claiming that the Eritrean regime has so far shown no gestures of reconciliation or acknowledgment of accountability, the expert noted that there is no guarantee against repeated aggression.

“Any engagement without reciprocity or preconditions is not diplomacy—it is surrender,” he said.

Labeling the normalization process as “alarming”, the expert argues that this willful act is driven by a pursuit of “short-term alignments” or an attempt to “rehabilitate from failed political agendas”.

On June 27, a joint conference organized by Addis Ababa University brought together prominent Tigrayan political figures, elites, youth, and CSOs to discuss the region’s current circumstances and attempt to chart a way forward.

Presenting his study at the conference, Shewit Gebrezgabher (Assistant Professor) noted that the region is experiencing severe security instability, marked by criminal activity ranging from minor offenses to serious violations.

He also emphasized that the interim regional government “lacks the capacity to enforce law and order effectively”.

“The level of security threat in Tigray exceeds the interim administration’s capabilities. Numerous aggressive forces have emerged across different areas,” he stated.

Shewit warned of what she claimed were potential conflicts instigated by neighboring regions but stressed that the unresolved tensions with Eritrea remain Tigray’s most critical security concern.

“There’s an effort to forge an improper relationship between the Tigray and Eritrean governments. This arrangement isn’t just a significant challenge—it’s also built on cloudy dealings. Such dynamics risk damaging Tigray’s relationship with the federal government and jeopardizing its future,” he added. 

Echoing the same concerns, Teame stressed that the TPLF bears equal responsibility for failing to align with forces other than the federal government, referencing the Pretoria Agreement.

He argued the TPLF’s informal alliance with Asmara, under Debretsion’s leadership, could severely jeopardize the peace deal.

According to him, this alliance seeks the “reconfiguration” of the region. 

“The alliance aims to destabilize the federal government, reconfigure Ethiopia’s national integrity, and enable Eritrea to support Tigray’s independence—potentially granting it access to the sea,” he told The Reporter.

The anonymous expert stressed that Tigray’s diplomatic relations must be grounded in structural political reorganization and democratic legitimacy. He further emphasized that all of the region’s foreign engagements should undergo proper institutional scrutiny.

“No party or individual should establish foreign relations without constitutional authorization, legislative oversight, and opportunities for public participation,” he said.

With the region already facing instability in Sudan, Somalia, and internal crises within Ethiopia, observers warn that renewed conflict between the two nations would not only destabilize border areas but could also draw in regional actors on a large scale.

The Sentry’s report calls for international intervention before the situation spirals out of control.

“The same actors who orchestrated the last war now stand on the brink of renewed conflict with the same cast of characters,” reads the report. “The international community – including the US and other like-minded jurisdictions – must clearly warn these parties – the Ethiopian government, Eritrean government, TPLF, and TIA – that renewed hostilities will trigger an intensified international response and sanctions.”

During an address to Parliament earlier this week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed called on religious leaders and other stakeholders to “act immediately” to prevent Tigray from entering into conflict for the second time in less than five years.