Re-emerging As An Anchor State In The Horn

The improvement of bilateral relations between Ethiopia and Somalia gained further momentum with the state visit of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) to Somalia this week following the end of diplomatic tensions over Ethiopia’s signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the self-declared Somaliland Republic, which Somalia denounced as a “violation of its sovereignty” signals a step in the right direction for both countries and the Horn of Africa. Signed in January 2024, the MoU set the stage for Ethiopia to lease a 20-km stretch of Somaliland’s sea coast for 50 years to establish a military base as well as a commercial maritime zone in exchange for possible recognition of Somaliland’s independence.  The deal led to a fierce diplomatic and military spat with Somalia, which wasted no time in accusing Ethiopia of undermining its territorial integrity, setting off fears of a conflict that threatened to further destabilize the Horn of Africa as it drew in Ethiopia’s longstanding rival Egypt. The specter of a region-wide crisis was averted though after the two countries agreed to strive to reach commercial arrangements and bilateral agreements that would ensure landlocked Ethiopia’s “reliable, safe and sustainable access” to the sea “under the sovereign authority of the Federal Republic of Somalia”.

The entire saga no doubt has dented Ethiopia’s status as a force to be reckoned with in a region racked by instability. The fact that Ethiopia generally acquiesced to Mogadishu’s core demand in the Ankara Declaration has only served to reinforce this perception.  A nation blessed with a rich history, cultural diversity, and strategic geographic location, it stands at a pivotal moment in its trajectory. As the second-most populous country in Africa and a historical symbol of independence and resilience, Ethiopia has the potential to re-emerge as an anchor state in the greater Horn of Africa region and across the continent. However, realizing this potential requires a deliberate and multifaceted strategy that addresses internal challenges while leveraging external opportunities. If it is to become once again a stabilizing force and a leader in the region, Ethiopia must work on a host of initiatives prioritizing, among others, political stability and regional diplomacy.

Political stability is the bedrock of any nation’s aspirations to regional leadership. Ethiopia’s recent history has been marred by internal conflicts, undermining its credibility and diverting resources from development endeavors. Assuming the mantle of an anchor state, hence, demands of it to address its internal divisions and foster national unity. This requires inclusive governance that ensures all ethnic and political groups feel represented and heard. The government should place dialogue, reconciliation, and the rule of law at the forefront to build trust among its diverse population. Strengthening institutions, combating corruption, and ensuring transparent governance are also essential to restoring domestic and international confidence in Ethiopia’s leadership. Moreover, it is of the essence that it navigate its federal structure carefully, balancing regional autonomy with national cohesion. A stable and united Ethiopia will not only enhance its domestic prospects, but also enable it to play a more effective role in mediating conflicts and promoting peace in the region.

On the diplomatic front Ethiopia’s geographic location places it at the heart of one of the world’s most volatile regions. The Horn of Africa is plagued by conflicts, terrorism, and political instability, which have had far-reaching implications for regional security and development. As a historically influential player, Ethiopia shoulders the responsibility to lead by example and contribute to regional stability. As such it should increasingly leverage its historical ties and cultural influence to mediate conflicts in countries like Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia. It’s incumbent on it as well to prudently manage its relationships with neighboring countries, particularly Egypt and Sudan, with whom it shares the Nile River. The GERD negotiations highlight the importance of diplomacy in addressing transboundary issues. Adopting a collaborative and transparent approach can help Ethiopia build trust and demonstrate its commitment to regional peace and development. Furthermore, Ethiopia needs to bolster its partnerships with global powers and international organizations in order to secure the resources and support needed to address regional challenges effectively.

Ethiopia’s journey to become an anchor state in the Horn of Africa and beyond is a challenge that can and indeed must be turned into an opportunity. Through steadfast efforts aimed at bringing about political stability and ramping up regional diplomatic engagements Ethiopia may overcome its internal challenges and re-emerge as a beacon of hope and progress in a troubled region. The road ahead will not be easy. Nevertheless, its history of resilience and independence provides a strong foundation for its aspirations. With visionary leadership, genuinely inclusive governance, and a commitment to regional cooperation, Ethiopia is sure to fulfill its potential as a stabilizing force and a leader in Africa. The time to act is now, for the sake of Ethiopia’s future and that of the entire Horn of Africa.