State Of The Union: AU Leaders Gather For “Rubber Stamp” Summit Amid Growing Uncertainty, Volatility

It is the time of year when African heads of state and government convene in Addis Ababa for the annual African Union (AU) summit. On the surface, the 39th summit, scheduled to last until Sunday, seems like business as usual. But under the surface, the continent’s leaders meet amid increasing global political volatility and growing uncertainty. The city of Addis, too, has changed markedly since the last time AU leaders met.

 

This year’s theme is “Assuring Sustainable Water Availability and Safe Sanitation Systems to Achieve the Goals of Agenda 2063.” It is framed to emphasize water as a vital collective resource that must be preserved amid climate change and leveraged as a tool for peace and cooperation among member states.

“In the face of observed climate disruptions, the prudent use of water in all aspects of daily life is a major imperative. This vital resource must be perceived as a collective good to be preserved at all costs and as a vector for bringing our states closer together and for peace,” said AUC Chairperson, Mahmoud Aliy Youssouf, during his opening address.

While water use and access to water remain a pertinent topic, the continent and several AU member states continue to struggle with peace and security, climate change, debt distress, undue outside influence, and the impact of global geopolitical upheaval.

These and more are on the agenda when the Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government, the highest decision-making body of the AU, is due to take place today and tomorrow alongside a host of other conferences and side events.

Among the items on the docket are the appointment of 10 AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) members, an initiative to reform the UN Security Council for better African representation, conflict in Sudan and elsewhere, security in the Sahel, and the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).

Addressing the PSC ministerial meeting on Sudan and Somalia on February 12 on the margins of the 48th Ordinary Executive Council of the AU, Youssouf called for unity, coherence, and strong African leadership in resolving crises on the continent.

On Sudan, he urged an immediate, verifiable and durable ceasefire, supported by credible monitoring mechanisms, to protect civilians, preserve territorial integrity, and pave the way for an inclusive, civilian-led transition.

On Somalia, he stressed that hard-won gains must be safeguarded. He called for sustainable financing for AUSSOM, underscoring that Somalia’s stability is closely linked to regional and global maritime security.

While noting that “Gabon and Guinea have returned to constitutional order,” Youssouf cautioned that “instability and terrorism persist in parts of the continent.”

On a similar note, Foreign Minister Gedion Timotiwos (PhD) stressed the need for Africa to reinforce its unity to protect itself from the scramble for its resources. In a lengthy opening speech, Gedion described a geopolitical landscape in which security, cutthroat competition for resources, and a technological arms race are quickly supplanting economic and humanitarian cooperation.

“Our continent remains gripped by incidents of unconstitutional changes of governments which are undermining the normative foundation of our Union. The evolving geopolitical landscape, in which multilateralism and global cooperation are eroded, is also adversely affecting peace and security in our continent. Fierce competition for technological supremacy, control of critical mineral resources, and major logistics routes are becoming a dominant feature of international relations. Trade and economic cooperation are becoming subordinated to political and security considerations,” Gedion told AU representatives.

“In this context, many big and middle powers are vying for Africa as a site for their competition, and as an instrument of their ambitions. Unfortunately, a mentality of dominance, extraction, and exploitation still colors the way many external actors view our continent. AU and African unity must be strong if we are to defend our continent from predatory moves that might come from all corners.”

The Minister lauded examples of progress over the past year, including unity in Africa’s call for reforms to the UN Security Council, climate justice, and the global financial architecture.

These common positions were on display during the G20 summit on African soil, in Johannesburg, South Africa, last November.

Gedion noted that several African countries held elections this year, and said that more and more countries are relying on the AU Commission for electoral processes.

“These are some of the positive developments we need to consolidate. What we need is not mere charity or goodwill of others, but true partnership,” the Minister underscored.

Ethiopia also called for the restructuring of Africa’s debts.

The AU’s peacekeeping mission in Somalia was another important agenda. The PSC reiterated its  position regarding Somalia—commending AUSSOM success, and rejecting any external interference that tries to undermine Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Leaders are expected to address AUSSOM’s budget deficit before the summit wraps up, with a possibility of fresh disbursals from the AU Peace Fund. Youssouf has been lobbying for resource mobilization for PAPS and AU peace missions, but nothing has materialized so far.

Regarding Sudan, the Council stressed the urgent need for the re-opening of the AU Liaison Office to Sudan and welcomed the steps taken by the Commission to commence an Assessment Mission to Sudan.

The Council also reiterated its decision to undertake a field mission of the Peace and Security Council to Sudan, taking into account the security situation on the ground to engage with the various stakeholders on the situation on the ground with a view to finding lasting peace and stability in Sudan.

The Council welcomed the return of the Sudanese Transitional Government to Khartoum, describing it as a significant step towards restoring and preserving public administrative services and the functioning of federal state institutions to better serve the Sudanese people.

Sudan itself remains barred from AU membership on account of its conflict, which is nearing its third year. Gabon and Guinea, which had both been suspended in 2021 following their respective military coups, have returned to the fold while a few countries in West Africa and the Sahel remain sanctioned.

Costantinos Berhutesfa (PhD), policy expert and former member of the AU anti-graft board, says the 39th AU summit is “business as usual.”

“Nothing new will come out of this summit. The heads of member states arrive, make speeches, and leave. The summit will not discuss the outstanding geopolitical issues unfolding in Africa and globally,” he said.

A closer look reveals that although the summit’s agenda is packed to the brim, most if not all items have previously been discussed at the Permanent Representatives Committee (PRC) level. The PRC conducts the day-to-day business of the AU on behalf of the Assembly and Executive Council.

“At the summit, leaders might raise issues pertaining to their national interests. For instance, Somalia’s president might condemn Somaliland and any effort to recognize it. Egypt might urge AU to push Ethiopia on GERD. South Africa might reassert the AU position on Israel and Gaza,” says Costantinos.

“The AU is not bold and responsive to outstanding current issues, mainly because AU protects the interests of AU member states. And AU member states prefer to deal with their issues bilaterally or through other platforms. The AU summit cannot be strong and assertive unless member states allow AU to be strong.”

A senior diplomat serving within the AU, who spoke to The Reporter anonymously, also observes the AU’s discussion agendas are not providing solutions to the continent’s outstanding problems.

“Africa is currently facing so many problems, but the AU is not addressing them. For instance, the AU and many African countries are becoming victims of Trump’s wave of crises. Trump cut aid to Africa. Trump also ridiculed and downplayed Africa’s diplomatic efforts. For instance, Lesotho was trying to secure HIV funding from the US, but Trump ridiculed Lesotho as a country,” says the diplomat.

He argues AU needs to devise practical tools to respond to unfolding global and regional geopolitical realities.

“Most African nations don’t have something to offer in Trump’s transactional politics and diplomacy. Trump is always driven by transactional diplomacy, but most African economies have nothing to offer, except their resources. For instance, the DRC handed over its resources to America. Kagame is involved in the DRC case, and the DRC chose America over Rwanda. DRC calculated that at least America provides security against Kagame.”

Further, the diplomat argues “Regarding Africa’s extractive industry, AU has policies and strategies. However, AU is not implementing it amidst rising global scramble for Africa’s resources. So, AU has no policy deficit, but implementation deficit. Plus, AU member states prefer bilateral dealings to collective operations. Several African countries are giving minerals in exchange for security. Somaliland is also doing the same.”

The diplomat also noted that some AU members prefer regional economic communities (RECs) to the AU.

“The AU is just a rubber stamp,” he said.

A new report from the Pan African Agenda Institute (PAAI) criticizes the AU for failing in its mandate to prevent, manage, and resolve conflicts. Former IGAD executive secretary Mahboub Maalim and PAAI chairman Mehari Maru detailed the findings during the release of the report, on February 10, 2026, in Nairobi.

The report assessed if AU is fit for purpose.

“We are saying, especially on prevention and intervention, it has failed. The report shows the numbers in terms of deaths, displacements and destruction of the economy,” said Professor Mehari. “Indeed, AU did not do its job. Why it is not able to do its job is another question. We give examples of ongoing war in Sudan, Rwanda genocide in 1994, Tigray in Ethiopia, Libya, DRC, Sahel, and other places.”

The professor stated it is unfortunate that some of the conflicts have been resolved by international partners like the US, and not the AU. He blames member states for the AU’s impotence.

“The nature of the states has not changed at all. The competition for power based on ethnic, regional and religious identity or beyond that for resource accumulation, is becoming a big cause of the states’ failure and the integrity of states affected,” said Mehari.

In Africa, conflict-driven fatalities, displacement and economic destruction have reached staggering levels and are surging.

According to the report, between 2004-2008 and 2019-2023, conflicts have led to 414,000 fatalities, (an increase of 841 percent), corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12 percent over the two-decade span, with states involvement being highest between 2021 to 2022.

Of the 153 million IDPs globally in 2014-2024, 76.3 million originate from Africa, constituting 50 percent of the global total. In Sudan, over 13.6 million people are displaced in early 2026, the largest displacement crisis globally.

The report had five key findings. Among them that the current international and African peace and security frameworks have failed to prevent genocidal conflicts, while the world is experiencing a dangerous interregnum between the dying post-WWII system and what is emerging now.

The Crisis Group has forwarded seven outstanding peace and security agendas this AU summit must prioritize. These are Sudan, Burundi-Rwanda, the Sahel, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Somalia, Cameroon, and South Sudan.

The Group stipulated different recommendations for each.

It advises that the US should work to convince the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as well as Egypt, to push the respective sides in Sudan to accept the US humanitarian truce proposal, before the war enters another phase of regional escalation.

The UAE should rein in Hemedti and his forces, while Saudi Arabia and Egypt should use their influence to sway Burhan to climb down from his maximalist position against a negotiated ceasefire, according to the Group.

Finally, rather than take sides in the conflict, African states should do their part – throwing their weight behind mediation efforts, including the US truce proposal, recognizing that the failure of these efforts risks more escalation, more destruction and a growing risk that the conflict will spill over into the rest of the region.

The report notes that tensions are building between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with both countries preparing for the possibility of war. It also notes that Somalia faces a loss of support that poses another risk to the Horn.

“Preserving gains against Al Shabaab is key, but Somalia also confronts widening political fault lines that threaten to undermine its stability or leave it an ever more fragmented polity, with long-term implications for the country and the neighborhood. Regional states should therefore push harder to help Somalia address its internal political rifts, including through a return to dialogue between Mogadishu and Hargeisa,” it reads.