A report from the government statistics agency estimates that Ethiopia’s population had reached 109.4 million by July 2024, contradicting data from other sources and statements from officials that cite significantly higher figures.
The report from the Ethiopian Statistical Service (ESS) was published on its website last month.
The total population estimate from ESS was much lower than the figures quoted by international organizations, which are often used as a reference by Ethiopian officials, including Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
For instance, UNFPA puts the number at nearly 130 million, while the CIA World Factbook has it at 118.5 million. Other sources go as high as 135.5 million.
The Reporter has confirmed the report was an authentic representation of ESS data.
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“We know international organizations are saying [the population] is above 120 million. Some say 123; some say 129. But where is the data coming from? ESS says it is 109 million. ESS is legally the sole source of data regarding Ethiopia. Our data is reliable,” said an official at the Service.
An expert in the field, who wished to remain anonymous, acknowledged the Service’s status as the official source of data but noted that even the most senior government officials often cite 130 million as the population figure in statements and media appearances.
“Nobody can deny data from ESS. It is the only legally mandated source of population data. ESS can sue an official, even the Prime Minister, if they contradict its data,” said the statistician.
The report indicates population estimates for each woreda, zone, region, and special administration across the country, and some of the figures are raising eyebrows.
Although the constitution states that a population census is to be conducted every decade, the government has not undertaken one since 2007, when the population was listed as 73.7 million.
At the time, census takers reported there were 700,000 more males in the country than females. That difference has since shrunk down to 250,000, according to the Service.
ESS estimates the population has surged by nearly 36 million since the last census was taken 18 years ago, with nearly half that growth being registered in the Oromia region. Oromia’s population has jumped substantially to 42 million in mid-2024 from 27 million in 2007, according to the Service.
It represents a 55.5 percent increase.
Meanwhile, ESS estimates the population of the neighboring Amhara region has risen from 17 million to 23.5 million over the same period—equivalent to a 38-percent increase.
The Service estimates a similar growth rate in Tigray, where it says the population has grown from 4.3 million to 5.9 million over the course of 17 years. ESS included the disputed territories of Humera, Welkait, Tsegede, and Alamata in its report. A previous estimate from 2019 put Tigray’s population at 5.44 million, while the latest indicates the population has grown by half a million people despite the two-year war.
Dire Dawa’s population has grown by nearly 66 percent to 566,000, according to the latest ESS report.
The Service’s four million estimate for Addis Ababa is especially in doubt as experts and observers say the figure is nowhere near the eight or 10 million figure accepted by most as fact.
Despite ESS officials’ adamance that the estimates are accurate, experts argue otherwise.
“The government uses ESS figures for planning and decision making. However, the government has a policy for population survey approaches. There are three types of population estimation models: low, medium and high. The government typically uses low estimation models when it wants to create a narrative of success in population control policy and other decision making related to budget allocation. The government can also deploy a high estimation model when it wants to exaggerate the figures to intensify resource mobilization in the name of feeding the ‘skyrocketing’ population,” said a statistician.
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