The Pitfalls Of Exploiting Mega Projects For Political Mileage

In recent months, the Ethiopian government has unveiled a series of ambitious mega projects, often accompanied by elaborate ceremonies and sweeping promises. Just this week, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) laid the foundation for both an oil refinery and a urea fertilizer plant in the Somali region. He also announced the inauguration of the first stage of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project and the launch of a second, larger phase in the region. These announcements were presented with great flourish, with the government touting them as engines of economic transformation and regional growth. Ethiopia, with its urgent need to diversify its economy, expand exports, and create jobs for millions of young citizens, does indeed stand to gain much from such investments. Yet, there are serious risks. History has shown that in Ethiopia, large-scale projects often become political trophies rather than well-executed national undertakings. The GERD, sugar factories, and railway projects stand as cautionary examples of what happens when political prestige overtakes careful planning, feasibility, and transparency.

Mega projects are not inherently problematic; they are vital for growth if properly executed. But by nature, they demand immense resources, advanced expertise, and meticulous oversight. They also carry serious risks, including environmental degradation, unsustainable debt, and disruption of communities. When governments elevate the symbolism of these projects above their practical challenges, they raise public expectations while obscuring the daunting obstacles. Ethiopia’s track record illustrates the danger of this approach. While the GERD continues to symbolize national pride, it has been beset by delays, financing difficulties, and allegations of corruption, many of which were understated in official narratives. Similarly, sugar projects initiated in earlier years collapsed due to poor design, corruption, and a lack of preparation, leaving incomplete factories and wasted billions behind.

The oil refinery, LNG and fertilizer projects risk falling into the same trap if they are reduced to political slogans. For one, their feasibility remains far from clear. Extracting, processing, and refining natural gas is a technically demanding endeavor that requires not only massive upfront investment but also long-term stability, reliable infrastructure, and strong governance. Fertilizer plants, meanwhile, depend on steady supply chains, competitive pricing, and global market integration. Without candid assessments of these factors, the projects could end up as little more than glossy announcements designed to burnish the government’s image rather than transformative undertakings that actually serve the people.

Equally troubling is the lack of transparency about financing. Who is funding these projects, and under what terms? Are they to be financed primarily through external loans, public-private partnerships, or domestic revenue? Given Ethiopia’s debt burden is already heavy, plunging into new multi-billion-dollar commitments without clear public disclosure would be reckless, potentially saddling future generations with obligations that they neither consented to nor benefit from. Citizens have the right to know how their country’s resources are being allocated and what sacrifices will be required.

There is also the question of impact on local communities and the environment. The Somali region has long been one of Ethiopia’s most marginalized areas, with deep-seated grievances over neglect, underdevelopment, and heavy-handed state policies. If mega projects are implemented without genuine consultation and benefit-sharing, they risk exacerbating tensions rather than easing them. Local communities must not simply be spectators or victims of projects imposed from above; they must be partners who have a real voice in how projects are designed, implemented, and managed. Environmental considerations are just as important. From water contamination to greenhouse gas emissions, natural gas extraction, oil refining and industrial-scale fertilizer production both pose ecological risks. Ignoring these issues in the rush to declare quick wins could have devastating long-term consequences for Ethiopia’s fragile ecosystems.

None of this is to argue against the idea of ambitious projects themselves. Ethiopia needs bold investments to unlock its economic potential, particularly in energy, manufacturing, and agriculture. What is being questioned is the political culture that often treats mega projects as symbols of national triumph before they have proven viable, sustainable, or beneficial. A project announced with great ceremony but abandoned midway or saddled with debt does not advance national development—it undermines it. The Ethiopian government must resist the temptation to exploit these initiatives for short-term political mileage. Instead, it should prioritize transparency, accountability, and rigorous feasibility studies.

The first imperative is open disclosure. Feasibility studies, financing arrangements, and environmental impact assessments should be published and made accessible to the public. This helps build public trust and improve the quality of decision-making by exposing weaknesses early on. Second, community participation must be a cornerstone. Residents of the Somali region should be meaningfully engaged in shaping the projects, from land use negotiations to employment opportunities and benefit-sharing mechanisms. Third, financing must be handled prudently. Ethiopia cannot afford to chase prestige projects at the expense of fiscal stability. An approach that balances economic returns, affordability, and sustainability is critical.

The government should further adopt a culture of honest communication with citizens. Rather than presenting mega projects as magic bullets that will deliver instant prosperity, officials must speak frankly about timelines, risks, and trade-offs. Development is a long-term process, and managing expectations is as important as securing investments. If the projects succeed, they should be celebrated not as the triumph of a ruling party, but as collective national achievements. If they face setbacks, Ethiopians deserve candor rather than propaganda.

The ultimate measure of Ethiopia’s mega projects will not be the grandeur of their announcements; it’s the tangible improvements they bring to people’s lives. If the oil refinery, LNG project and fertilizer plant in the Somali region deliver reliable jobs, reduce dependence on imports, generate export revenue, and uplift marginalized communities, they will be historic milestones. But if they are pursued recklessly, as tools of political theatrics, they risk becoming cautionary tales of wasted potential. The Ethiopian government must choose wisely. The country’s future prosperity depends not on the scale of its promises but on the integrity of its actions.