The Scramble Behind Addis Ababa’s Conspicuous Presidential Visits

Quoting Israeli officials, Israeli media outlets have reported over the past week that President Isaac Herzog is due to make an official visit to Addis Ababa in the coming days.

Media reports indicate the trip is part of Israel’s efforts to expand its ties in Africa, and the announcement of Herzog’s visit speaks volumes not only about Israel’s desire to gain a stronger foothold in the continent, but also about the increasing volatility and geopolitical importance ascribed to relations between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.

News of Herzog’s planned trip comes in the immediate wake of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Addis Ababa.

During a joint press brief on Tuesday, PM Abiy Ahmed stated that he had formally requested Turkiye’s backing for Ethiopia’s quest for maritime access. The Prime Minister underlined that Ethiopia, with a population of over 130 million, has remained landlocked for decades contrary to global norms, describing the condition as historically unjust.

Abiy framed the issue as an economic necessity, asserting that Ethiopia has been made a prisoner of geography for years, and called for the support of friendly countries such as Turkiye.

Whether that support will be granted remains to be seen, and Erdogan’s statements in Addis Ababa seemed to suggest otherwise.

“I would like to especially underline our stance of valuing the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states in the area where Ethiopia is located,” said the Turkish president. “We believe regional countries need to find solutions to the problems of the region and for the Horn of Africa not to become a competition field for foreign forces. In that regard, I would like to emphasize that Israel’s recognition of Somaliland does not benefit Somaliland or the Horn of Africa.”

In December, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a state. Ethiopia, which signed an MoU with Somaliland in January 2024 as part of a purported sea access-for-recognition deal, is expected to be among the countries to recognize Somaliland sovereignty next but has yet to make the move.

Erdogan’s speech in Addis Ababa this week drew criticism from Somaliland.

“The Republic of Somaliland condemns the recent remarks by the President of the Republic of Türkiye as unacceptable interference aimed at discouraging relations between Somaliland and regional partners,” reads a statement issued by Hargeisa on Wednesday.

Analysts observe Ankara has a vested interest in protecting Somalia’s territorial integrity.

It was Turkiye that mediated between Ethiopia and Somalia in December 2024 following the year-long fallout the MoU caused between the two countries. Seven months earlier, Mogadishu and Ankara had inked a deal of their own granting Turkish Petroleum the right to explore and develop onshore and offshore natural gas and oil in Somalia.

Reports indicate the agreement permits Turkey to recover 90 percent of its operational costs before sharing profits with Somalia.

“Somalia has provided strategic investment and resource concessions, including offshore gas, to Turkiye in exchange for security guarantees and military assistance from Ankara. Therefore, it is not surprising for Erdogan to urge Ethiopia not to recognize Somaliland,” an Ethiopian diplomat told The Reporterspeaking anonymously.

Unsurprisingly, Somalia also continues to reject Israel’s recognition of breakaway Somaliland.

During an interview with Talk To Al Jazeera a week ago, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stated that Turkiye and other allies, which include Egypt, would provide Mogadishu with military support if Israel continues to advance its position in Somaliland.

“Somaliland’s agreement with Israel includes providing a military base for Israel in Somaliland coastal areas, accepting Gaza peoples whom Israel displaced from Gaza, and signing the Abraham Accords. This violates the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Somalia. Will never allow the establishment of an Israeli base in Somaliland and will confront any such move. If Israel moves to bring their military to Somaliland, we will fight Israel and our allies will provide us support,” said Hassan Sheikh.

Whether Israel’s allies, including Washington, will back it in Somaliland remains to be seen.

Although some US lawmakers have repeatedly called for the recognition of Somaliland, and the proposal was weighed in Trump election documents last year, Washington has yet to follow in Israel’s footsteps.

However, both the US and Israel have stated they see Somaliland as a strategic military stepping stone for the fight against Yemeni Houthis across the Red Sea.

The Houthi conflict also involves Iran on the other side, and growing tensions between the two groups threaten to pull the world into another large-scale conflict, leading analysts to suggest that Somaliland could yet come to play a larger role in global politics.

Ethiopia, on the other hand, has been vocal in advancing its growing national interest in access to the sea, as unjust landlockedness hampers its development endeavors.

But behind the regional tensions and finger-pointing that have defined the Somaliland recognition saga over the past two years lies an intense and complex scramble among outsiders for influence in the Horn of Africa.

As Erdogan hinted in his speech in Addis Ababa this week, the Horn is a battleground in a cold war between foreign powers.

Notable among these powers are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In recent months, Saudi forces attacked UAE positions in Yemen while Somalia closed its airspace to the UAE and the Egypt-backed SAF reasserted control over Khartoum.

The events suggest the UAE’s influence in the region may be waning, placing its allies in a state of uncertainty and opening the door for others, such as Turkiye and Egypt, whose foothold in the Horn is expanding.

Like Turkiye, Egypt has a growing military presence in Somalia.

On February 11, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud joined Egyptian military leaders in Cairo to witness a formal deployment parade. The ceremony marked the official assignment of the Egyptian Armed Forces to Somalia.

Egypt is reportedly deploying around 1,100 troops to Somalia, supplied with a variety of Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles and Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC) designed for high-threat environments.

Just a month before coming to Addis Ababa, Erdogan was in Cairo, where he signed a military pact with Egyptian president El Sisi.

The military cooperation agreement included the purchase of Tolga short-range air defense system (a platform designed to detect and defeat aerial threats including drones and low-flying aircraft) by Egypt for USD 130 million.

The deal also covers joint production of unmanned ground vehicles, following up on a similar agreement for the production of vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) drones from August 2025.

The two countries have also agreed on joint naval exercises, which Erdogan claims will help support regional peace.

Just a couple of days  following his visit to the Ethiopian capital, senior Egyptian and Turkish air force commanders met in Cairo to discuss deeper military collaboration.

The diplomat notes Turkiye is the second largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ethiopia, next to China. Turkiye also supplies drones to Ethiopia.

“If Ethiopia disregards Erdogan’s warning and proceeds to recognize Somaliland, Turkiye might reconsider these leverages. Turkiye might also start directly backing Egypt’s interest over GERD [Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam]apart from offering support to Ethiopia’s regional foes. Turkiye’s concerns are not for the safety of the Horn, but stem from a desire to gain a foothold in Somalia and Sudan by cutting off the UAE,” said the diplomat.

Türkiye has been a strategic member of NATO since 1952, boasting the alliance’s second-largest military and acting as a crucial southeastern anchor. While it is a long-standing candidate for European Union membership and part of the EU Customs Union, it is not a member of the EU.

Observers argue that Turkiye’s frustrations with the EU have forced it to turn its attention southward.

“After losing the bid to become an EU member, Turkiye has turned its face towards pursuing influence in the Gulf and Horn regions. That’s why it is supporting Egypt and Somalia. Turkiye also seeks to resolve the Sudan crisis. All this to assert itself in the Horn,” said the diplomat.

He remarked that the UAE’s close ties to Israel, with which Turkiye cut all diplomatic relations in 2024, mark Abu Dhabi as an adversary in the eyes of Ankara.

“Ultimately, the tensions and rivalries between the Arab world on one side and the west on the other have placed the Horn of Africa in a precarious situation,” said the diplomat. “Not only have Arab countries Arabized the Red Sea and cut Ethiopia off from access, but they are moving to implement a new map that will enable them to control the Horn for the coming decades. Meanwhile, the US is taking a transactional approach, which involves swapping critical resources in exchange for security, and is already working against China’s strong presence in Africa, particularly in the Horn.”

While analysts have differing views on how the power struggle in the Horn will unfold, they all seem to agree that in all scenarios, the countries of the Horn themselves stand to lose.

“The situation will lead to further fragmentation and protracted conflicts under the influence of foreign powers, unless the East and North African nations reach a consensus under the umbrella of AU and REC [regional economic community] integration principles. The AU and RECs must assert their principles on the fair use of African maritime territory by Africans,” an analyst from Addis Ababa University’s School of Geography and Development Studies told The Reporterspeaking anonymously.

“African countries, especially in the Horn, must stop availing themselves to the political market. As long as we are availing our nations and national interest to the market, it is easy for foreign powers to scramble to control us.”