Tigray At A Crossroads As Interim Rule Extended, Political Rift Deepens And War Fears Resurface | The Reporter Ethiopia

Following the Council of Ministers’ decision to extend the mandate of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) by one year, questions have intensified over the region’s political trajectory, representation within the federal system, and internal cohesion.

The extension comes amid a widening rift between the delisted Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the interim administration, alongside continued concerns regarding Eritrea’s alleged involvement in the region’s political and security dynamics.

These developments also coincide with preparations for Ethiopia’s upcoming national elections and heightened tensions that analysts warn could escalate into renewed confrontation involving federal forces and actors aligned with Tigray and Eritrea.

Tigray remains at a critical juncture, with political observers emphasizing the need for internal cohesion and a unified political approach within the region. Some analysts have raised concerns over reported alignments between elements of the TPLF and Eritrean authorities, while public sentiment reflects growing apprehension over the prospect of renewed conflict.

Reports indicate increasing movement of young people leaving the region for Addis Ababa and onward migration routes abroad, underscoring concerns about security, economic conditions, and broader uncertainty shaping the region’s immediate future.

The extension of the TIA’s mandate follows the expiration of its original term, which was established under the Pretoria peace agreement signed in November 2022. Federal authorities have framed the extension as necessary to maintain administrative continuity and support the ongoing implementation of disarmament, rehabilitation, and reconstruction processes.

However, disagreements persist over authority, legitimacy, and the pace of political normalization.

In a statement issued a day after PM Abiy’s decision to extend Tadesse’s presidency term, TPLF rejected the term extension of TIA, asserting that it violates the Pretoria Peace Agreement. It further contended that the federal government’s unilateral decision does not adhere to Tigray region’s established laws prior to the peace accord.

Regional political figures and analysts say the TPLF is seeking to reassert control over regional governance structures it lost at the outset of the November 2020 war, a move they warn could deepen political divisions.

In an interview with The ReporterDejen Mezgebe (PhD), chairman of the Tigray Independence Party (TIP), accused the TPLF of attempting to consolidate power and steer the region’s political direction unilaterally.

He alleged that the group has sidelined dissenting voices through pressure, arrests, and dismissals of opposing actors.

“They are working to regain control of the office they lost before the outbreak of the war in Tigray,” he said, adding that such actions risk undermining the region’s institutional integrity.

On the other hand, Muauz Gidey (PhD), a scholar at Mekelle University, said the ongoing political dispute could create openings for both internal and external actors to exploit the situation. He emphasized that national cohesion among Tigrayan political forces remains critical for the region’s stability.

According to Muauz, failure to use the current period of relative calm to build consensus could heighten risks.

“Eritrean leadership is pursuing a calculated strategy to capitalize on this window to weaken Tigray,” he told The Reporter. He added that tensions with the federal government could also intensify if divisions persist, noting that unresolved disputes over security arrangements, the return of displaced populations, and the status of contested areas in western and southern Tigray continue to strain relations.

Reports from diplomatic and regional sources continue to reference the presence and influence of Eritrean forces in and around parts of Tigray, despite repeated calls for their withdrawal under the Pretoria agreement. These concerns have contributed to mistrust among the population and stakeholders, raising questions about the durability of the peace process.

As the situation becomes increasingly complex, residents report a growing sense of uncertainty, with many unsure how to respond to rapidly shifting political and security developments. In several parts of Tigray, communities describe a climate of anxiety shaped by recent events and memories of the conflict that began in November 2020.

Among them is Miruts (last name withheld), a resident of Sheraro in Tigray’s Northwestern Zone, who describes the current moment as defined by “uncertainty.”

He says the population is caught between the aftermath of the previous conflict and fears of renewed confrontation. According to Miruts, recent developments have deepened public concern, leaving many uncertain about their immediate future.

Miruts also points to what he describes as the visible presence of Eritrean forces in and around his area, raising fears among local communities.

“They used to operate in disguise, but now everyone can see them clearly,” he told The Reporteradding that the movement of armed groups through the town has heightened fears of another round of conflict.

Reflecting this growing climate of apprehension, a widely circulated notice attributed to the TPLF issued a “national call” for Tigrayans to enter military service. The notice urges former fighters and eligible youth to report to designated recruitment centers, including in Adwa, calling on residents to “fulfill their national responsibility.”

The message has raised concern among families who experienced the earlier phase of the war.

A former logistics and armament specialist who served under the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) said he left the region with his children after receiving a letter instructing him to return to service. Now residing in Addis Ababa, he said he chose to leave to avoid another conflict.

“If war breaks out again, it will destroy Tigray,” he told The Reporterspeaking on condition of anonymity. He added that he prepared to leave within days of receiving the notice. “I survived the last war, and I want to live for my children.”

The political environment has also cast uncertainty over the feasibility of conducting elections in Tigray alongside the national electoral calendar.

While electoral authorities have yet to confirm timelines for voter registration, institutional readiness, or security guarantees in the region, analysts indicate that the absence of consensus among key political actors, combined with logistical and security challenges, could complicate any electoral process and affect Tigray’s formal political representation at the federal level.

Muauz argues that the current push for elections risks overlooking fundamental crises of legitimacy and security in the region.

He said holding a vote without unified authority and stable security conditions could undermine the credibility of the process. According to him, the priority should be addressing humanitarian concerns and restoring order before moving toward elections.

He added that ongoing instability and territorial disputes present significant obstacles to conducting credible polls.

“Elections are impossible in Tigray with the ongoing political differences,” he said.

On April 1, 2026, the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission (ENDC) launched a three-day agenda-gathering forum for Tigray in Addis Ababa after determining that conditions on the ground did not allow for such consultations to take place within the region.

Chief Commissioner Mesfin Araya (Prof.) said the decision reflected the “absence of enabling conditions” and capacity constraints in Tigray.

The forum, held for three days, brought together more than 600 participants, including representatives of political parties, civil society organizations, religious institutions, and other regional stakeholders, as part of efforts to incorporate Tigrayan perspectives into the broader national dialogue process.