One of the most atrocious and bloody conflicts in modern Ethiopian history came to an uneasy close with the signing of a ceasefire agreement in one of the South African capitals in November 2022, after two years of brutal violence. Among other things, the Pretoria Agreement called for the establishment of the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA) to govern the war-torn northernmost Ethiopian province. The peace deal also marked the beginning of a split in the leadership of the political party that has governed Tigray with an iron fist for more than three decades.
The composition of the TIA grants a huge amount of voting power to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and a sizable chunk of influence to the regional military power, the Tigray Defense Force (TDF). The terms of the agreement left only participatory crumbs for regional opposition parties, and only one of them has since opted to take part in the region’s governance in the nearly two years since it was signed.
In an op-ed published in The Reporter back in February 2023, Lt. General Tsadkan Gebretensae, one the heads of TDF, described the process leading up to the establishment of TIA as “flawed.”
“[TIA] may not be expected to deliver the desired result unless steps are taken to legitimize the existing members [TPLF and TDF] and include the missing stakeholders [opposition parties, academia…],” reads his op-ed, which was written following a meeting for the committee designated to design and facilitate the formation of the Interim Administration.
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At the time, TPLF was still designated a terrorist group by Parliament.
A month after Tsadkan’s op-ed was published, and in what was a first for Tigray, the TIA was established but the TPLF chairman would not be leading the interim government, with the presidency instead going to Getachew Reda, a long time senior TPLF official. The federal government also removed TPLF from its list of terrorist-designated groups that same month.
The first cracks in the TPLF’s leadership began to appear at this time, with many disgruntled party members arguing that Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD), chairman and regional president before and during the war, should have retained his post. Others claimed that Getachew ascended to the presidency through the will and blessing of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) and the incumbent Prosperity Party.
Although the composition and power structure of the interim government is complex, layered, and yet to be fully uncovered, the events of March 2023 marked the beginning of what is only now coming into full view as a fracture in the TPLF ignited by the separation of party and state power.
Shortly after the establishment of TIA, TPLF celebrated the 50th anniversary of its founding and petitioned the federal government for the reinstatement of its legal status as a registered political party. Officials at the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) denied the request, citing there were no legal provisions that would allow re-licensing for a debarred party and stating that TPLF would have to register as a new political party to regain recognition. The precondition did not sit well with the party.
The rejection had been cause for friction, with some party officials warning “there would be another war if TPLF is denied relicensing.” The initial disagreement was followed by months of uproar and blowback, with TPLF leadership and TIA heads denouncing the Board’s decision through official statements and the media.
All the while, the Tigray Regional State was struggling to deal with the fallout from the war, including an economic standstill, close to a million IDPs, health crises, a sharp uptick in crime and gender-based violence, and a flourishing illicit trade, particularly in gold and other minerals.
In early 2024, the federal government approved an amendment to the Electoral, Political Parties Registration, and Elections Code of Conduct Proclamation that would allow the re-registration of previously banned parties under strict conditions.
A provision in the amended proclamation permits a political group that has participated in rebellious activities to register as a political party under special consideration if it is confirmed by the relevant government body that the group has ceased such activities and agreed to operate in respect of the constitutional democratic system.
The amendment paved the way for TPLF’s legal reinstatement but it also led to a public power struggle between the party’s wing at the top of TIA and its old guard, casting a shadow of uncertainty on the governance of Tigray and the future of the interim administration.
On June 24, 2024, the Ministry of Justice notified NEBE of its decision to permit the TPLF to register as a political party. At the time, Amanuel Assefa, TPLF spokesperson, told Tigray TV that the party is “seeking to regain legal status, not re-register.”
According to him, Tigray’s ruling party is demanding the reacquisition of its legal status from NEBE, rather than re-registering in accordance with the terms of the Pretoria Agreement.
The notion was rejected by the Prime Minister, who warned during discussions with the representatives of political parties last month that failure to follow legal procedures on the part of TPLF could reignite conflict in the country’s north.
“The TPLF should first meet the Election Board’s requirements and register or reinstate itself legally before convening its assembly,” said the PM. “We have amended laws to enable parties like the TPLF to register legally as political entities. The Attorney General has written a letter to the Board to ensure it allows the TPLF to continue as a party. We have fulfilled 100 percent of what was expected from us.”
Nonetheless, the NEBE announced on August 9 its decision to reinstate TPLF as a political party.
The amended proclamation entails that a reinstated political party can only call for a general assembly of its congress 21 days after regaining its status.
The TPLF, under the leadership of Debretsion, flouted the rule when it called for an assembly on August 14, less than a week after the reinstatement was announced. The faction led by Getachew Reda responded by calling the move illegal and not one backed by the majority of party leadership nor the public.
This was not the first time the party’s opposing sides had come to a crossroads about a general assembly.
The Reporter’s sources confirmed the old guard had called for a congress in April this year and the call was cut short by mediators.
However, this time around, Debretsion’s camp held its ground. His opening statement during the assembly characterized the congress as one that would mark the beginning of the TPLF’s rise “from destruction to survival.”
“Those who are making relentless effort to prohibit the occasion of this congress are not acceptable. It is the only way to solve our internal problems,” said Debretsion.
The Chairman denounced the opposing faction in the party leadership and accused the TIA of detaining party members who had traveled to Mekelle, the regional capital, to take part in the assembly.
The congress conducted under the auspices of the old guard and in opposition to the party’s inspection committee, which resigned two weeks prior, ended with the election of 45 new central committee members as well as 36 members of its executive committee.
Amanuel Assefa, newly elected deputy chairperson, disclosed that six members of the TPLF executive committee, including Getachew Reda, whom he replaced, had been expelled.
During a recent interview with regional state media, Getachew said his camp was unable to see eye to eye with the old guard. He characterized the power struggle as a clash between people who wanted to maintain the status quo and those who, despite having no clear idea of how to resolve the problems, wanted to see changes in the TPLF.
Getachew iterated there were no ideological differences between the opposing sides.
“I wouldn’t say there is much of a difference in terms of what we plan to do. We don’t have a sorted out, spelt out agenda that would serve as a ground for some sort of ideological difference here,” he said. “Although I can squarely blame some of my colleagues for derailing the whole process of putting in place a functioning government, I cannot, however, free myself from the blame. As part of the executive, we have utterly failed in coming up with a strategic vision for the party.”
Getachew asserts that he and his supporters have reached a point where they can no longer tolerate or abide by the old guard’s decisions.
He said he does not recognize the most recent assembly as legitimate.
“The splinter group wants to portray itself as the real repository of the true sense of TPLF, while those of us who are still in the business of trying to figure out how to better conduct ourselves beg to differ,” said Getachew.
On the other hand, during a press briefing following the conclusion of the TPLF’s 14th party congress, the re-elected chairman stated that all party representatives within the TIA had been ousted and replaced.
“There is no place for them at the party’s executive level. We would consider it should they want to remain as members,” said Debretsion. “If they wish to establish a new party, they could and that’s another story. But they are no longer elected party officials and we maintain the right to replace them with whomever we want.”
Debretsion argues the Pretoria Agreement and the terms of the establishment of TIA grant TPLF the right to adjust the composition and leadership of the interim administration whenever it deems necessary.
Getachew argues that it was only four members of the party’s executive committee that had applied for reinstatement from the NEBE and that the congress concluded last week cannot be deemed legal as it went against the rules set down by the Board. This makes his faction the true TPLF representatives in the eyes of the law, according to Getachew.
The back and forth once again puts the NEBE in a decisive position over the future of Tigray. Among the events that led to the outbreak of conflict in late 2020 was what the Board characterized as an unconstitutional regional election organized by the regional administration amid the COVID-19 pandemic against NEBE instructions.
On August 13, the Board stated it will not recognize the TPLF’s 14th general assembly.
“TPLF should announce its plans for a congress 21 days ahead of the assembly, and Board appointed observers should be present. The party failed to do this, hence, the Board will not recognize the general assembly,” reads an NEBE statement released that day.
The Board’s recognition of the general assembly would have automatically settled who would be governing Tigray in the transition into a full-fledged regional government with an elected state council from the rule of the interim administration.
However, the Board’s refusal to acknowledge the assembly does not seem to make a difference to Debretsion and his supporters, who maintain that what remains in the process of forming a regional government is only a round of talks with other members of the interim administration and then the federal government.
“We instituted the administration in coordination with other entities. We will be holding discussions with them. We will let them know that those in power have been dismissed and talk about how to proceed in replacing them,” said the Chairman.
Getachew voiced his opposition to the notion during an interview with regional state media.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to impose their version of TIA, but that is absolutely unacceptable,” he said. “The interim administration cannot and should not be subjected to the whims of the splinter group simply because it has decided it has been robbed of its presidency or its power by their own colleagues, who, unfortunately, they have difficulty trusting.”
Getachew says he does not expect the federal government to entertain the interests of the “splinter group” and argues he and his supporters should be the ones to represent TPLF.
“I know that there is some jostling even on the part of the splinter group to try to impress on the federal government that they are better suited to govern in Tigray than the whole group of interim administrators. Whether that will play itself out the way they wanted, that is an entirely different story,” he said.
The split in TPLF leadership has been cause for alarm in the federal government.
Following the initiation of the controversial general assembly, Legesse Tulu, head of the Government Communication Service, denounced TPLF for breaching the provisions of the Pretoria Agreement and accused its leadership of robbing Tigray of peace.
Getachew said the remarks were uncalled for and characterized them as “reckless.”
“The whole idea of re-ignition of war as though fighting war is a picnic is absolutely unacceptable. But having said that, we will continue to press for the implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, said the TIA president.
Despite the rising tensions and similarities with the conditions that existed in the lead up to the two-year war, observers and analysts say the ongoing power struggle within the TPLF is very unlikely to lead to war.
Residents of Mekelle who spoke to The Reporter say it is very doubtful that the people of Tigray would go to war over a split in TPLF leadership.
The federal government’s involvement in the matter is also limited by the terms of its new four-year arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among other factors.
The terms of the extended credit facility agreement with the IMF make it unequivocally clear that the federal government’s involvement in or instigation of conflict would jeopardize the continuance of the arrangements, which will see an estimated USD 3.4 billion in financing disbursed in the coming years.
Still, it remains to be seen what the TPLF’s internal power struggle and its effects on the Tigray Regional Administration and the wider implementation of the terms of the Pretoria Agreement will mean for peace and stability in a region and country desperate for peace.
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