Turbulent Year Behind, Rough Year Ahead

As Ethiopia prepares to welcome a new year, The Reporter takes a look back at some of the more memorable and significant headlines that defined 2016EC. From unrequited armed conflicts, insurgencies and political developments to escalating regional tensions and landmark economic reforms, the past year had no shortage of gripping news stories. Take a look back at a few of them as the country heads towards 2017EC.

NOVEMBER 2023 (G.C.)

Tanzania talks end, no deal

Two weeks of talks that began with promises of putting a stop to the five-year militarized conflict in the Oromia region between government forces and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), ended without an agreement for the second time in seven months.

Days of on and off reports of a stalemate over key issues in the peace talks being held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania ended without a deal, with well-placed diplomatic sources indicating differences over “matters of significance.”

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The OLF side tabled proposals including demands for arrangements of “inclusive governance and embrace of all political parties in Oromia,” while the federal government focused on arrangements with OLA alone, similar in substance to the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed between the government and the TPLF in November 2022.

Redwan Hussein, national security advisor to the Prime Minister, said the talks ended without agreement due to “the intransigence of the other party.”

The OLA accused the federal government of failing to commit to addressing “the fundamental problems that underlie the county’s seemingly insurmountable security and political challenges.”

“A historical opportunity to take a leap in the right direction has been lost because of the Ethiopian government’s failure to course correct,” reads an OLA statement released following the talks.

DECEMBER 2023

AfDB recalls foreign staff from Ethiopia office

The African Development Bank (AfDB) instructed all of the  international staff members serving in its Ethiopia office to withdraw following  an assault by Ethiopian security forces on two of them a few weeks prior.

A statement from AfDB President Akinwumi Adesina said the assault “continues to cause much anxiety” for the bank.

“The incident has also raised concerns among the Bank’s shareholders, international financial institutions, [and] the broader diplomatic community,” said Adesina.

AfDB called for investigations into the physical assaults only to withdraw all requests and claims and resume its operations in Ethiopia following a meeting between Adesina and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The Ethiopian government later presented an award to the bank’s country director.

Nigeria, the US, and Egypt are among the AfDB’s largest shareholders. The Bank is currently financing close to two dozen projects in Ethiopia, with a portfolio valued at USD 1.24 billion.

JANUARY 2024

Ethiopia signs controversial sea access for recognition deal with Somaliland

The year 2024 got off to a dramatic start in the Horn of Africa as Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) and Somaliland President Muse Bihi met in Addis Ababa to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that would see Ethiopia lease a 20 kilometer stretch of the Somaliland coast in exchange for recognition of the sovereignty of the Republic of Somaliland, among other things.

Redwan Hussein and other senior federal officials hailed the deal as paving the way to allowing Ethiopia to have commercial marine operations in the region by giving it access to a leased military base on the Red Sea. It was also indicated that Somaliland would receive a stake in the state-owned Ethiopian Airlines as part of the deal.

APRIL 2024

Council of Ministers approves draft Transitional Justice Policy

The Council of Ministers unanimously approved the draft Transitional Justice Policy in a bid to address “the overlapping and wide range of victims of human rights violations, conflicts, narratives, and abuses that have occurred in different eras in the country.”

The Council said that the previous attempts to resolve these issues “did not provide a lasting solution as they were not sufficiently rights-oriented and flexible.” In contrast, the new policy was described as “an inclusive, humanitarian transitional justice strategy based on mercy, justice, and transparent policies.”

The draft policy was submitted by the Ministry of Justice after the conclusion of public consultation workshops to validate the draft document. The Ministry organized four workshops in Addis Ababa with representatives of political parties, civil society organizations, democratic institutions, victim groups, and government officials.

In September 2023, a team of 14 experts leading public consultations on transitional justice policy options, under the auspices of the ministry, said it had concluded the consultations that had been underway across the country since March 2023.

At the time, experts cautioned against misplaced optimism, questioning the government’s commitment to genuine accountability.

MAY 2024

Ethiopia slams US Ambassador’s remarks as ‘ill-advised’ and ‘uninformed’

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized a fiery policy speech from US Ambassador Erving Massinga, deeming it “ill-advised” and containing “uninformed assertions” about the Ethiopian government’s handling of the country’s affairs.

In a press release issued on 16 May, 2024, the Ministry stated that Massinga’s statement contained “allegations against and unsolicited advice to the government of Ethiopia on how best to run the affairs of the country.”

The Ministry’s statement came in response to Ambassador Massinga’s address at the “American Gibbi” Yemeni Community School in Addis Ababa on 15 May, where he discussed Ethiopia’s current security situation, national dialogue, and transitional justice.

Massinga urged the Ethiopian government to adopt “a more peaceful approach” to resolve complex political issues and to release key political figures to facilitate much-needed political dialogue. He called for an end to the detention and harassment of government critics.

Massinga also addressed various armed groups engaged in conflict with the government, including the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the Fano militia in Amhara. He called for their participation in national dialogue and transitional justice processes, emphasizing the need for a nationwide ceasefire to facilitate humanitarian access and urging all parties to engage in dialogue and seek peace.

The Ministry stated that it found the ambassador’s remarks to be “inconsistent with the long-standing and amicable relations between Ethiopia and the United States.”

The Ministry raised concerns about the Ambassador’s statements, which reportedly highlighted “groups bent on overthrowing the elected government by force and known for blackmailing, kidnapping, and terrorizing civilians.”

The federal government kicked off the long-awaited National Dialogue process led by an 11-member Commission entrusted with promoting an all-inclusive consultations and reconciliation process that officials hope will mend rifts, foster agreement on important national matters, and assist the nation in resolving its intricate difficulties.

Since its launch, the Dialogue has been the subject of concerns regarding government involvement in the initiative. Participants, including academics from Addis Ababa University (AAU), have urged for lessened government influence while opposition political parties have also issued statements urging the government to reach ceasefire agreements with armed groups and include them in the upcoming dialogue.

JUNE 2024

Conflict killed 1,106 in Amhara, Oromia in 2023: UN human rights agency

The UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) published a report indicating that more than 1,100 people had been killed as a result of conflict in the Amhara and Oromia regions in 2023.

The report stated there were at least 4,879 people placed under arrest across 16 detention centers or sites as part of the state of emergency declared in August 2023. OHCHR advocacy contributed to the release of 1,132 people arbitrarily detained by the end of December 2023, according to the report.

Despite significant improvements in the human rights situation in Tigray following the cessation of hostilities agreement in late 2022, the report cited that Ethiopia continued to face a “challenging” human rights situation in 2023, with Amhara and Oromia most affected by violent clashes and conflicts.

OHCHR reported the prevalence of arbitrary deprivations of the right to life, physical integrity, arbitrary arrests and detention, sexual violence, breaches of freedoms of association, expression, of movement, as well as abductions and enforced disappearances. The report noted that arbitrary arrests and detentions were the most common violations, followed by killings of civilians, torture, enforced disappearances, and attacks on civilian property.

Overall, 594 incidents of human rights violations and abuses impacting 8,253 victims (of whom at least 343 were women) were recorded in 2023, a 55.9 percent increase from 2022. State actors were allegedly responsible for 70 percent of the violations, while non-state actors accounted for 22.3 percent (133 incidents) of which 25 incidents were specifically attributed to the Eritrean Defence Forces.

The report reveals that 740 people in the Amhara region and 366 in Oromia were killed across 160 incidents in 2023. It also highlights the use of drones by the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) resulted in disproportionate levels of civilian casualties, with 18 registered drone strikes that caused 248 civilian deaths and injured 55 between 4 August and 31 December 2023.

Following the declaration of the state of emergency, high numbers of arbitrary arrests, predominantly of ethnic Amhara people in different parts of the country, were documented. OHCHR also documented nine incidents that caused the forced or arbitrary displacement of close to 43,000 victims in 2023.

JULY 2024

Ethiopia floats currency as it seeks to secure IMF deal

Ethiopia floated its currency as part of a long-delayed reform the federal government hopes will ease chronic foreign currency shortages and attract foreign investment. The move was also a prelude to a multilateral funding deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank.

The National Bank of Ethiopia removed restrictions on the foreign currency market in late July, marking a significant shift in its interventionist policies.

 “The reform introduces a competitive, market-based determination of the exchange rate and addresses a long-standing distortion within the Ethiopian economy,” the central bank said in a statement.

In the weeks following the floating, the official exchange rate jumped from 57 birr per USD to around 104 birr per USD, narrowing the margin with black market exchange rate to less than 10 percent, down from the 98 percent recorded prior to the liberalization.

The federal government also introduced changes in the import, retail, and wholesale trades, opening them up to foreign investors as part of its economic reform program.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a bailout of USD 3.4 billion for Ethiopia as part of an extended credit facility agreement it reached with the federal government.

News of the deal came less than 24 hours following the Prime Minister’s announcement that the foreign exchange market was being liberalized. The day after that, the World Bank announced it had approved USD 1.5 billion in financing, in addition to an estimated USD 15 billion earmarked for backing economic reform and development projects in the country over the coming three years through its affiliates the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC).

 “This is a landmark moment for Ethiopia,” said Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, adding that it was “a testament to Ethiopia’s strong commitment to transformative reform.”

The IMF said it would immediately release about USD 1 bn to help Ethiopia’s “balance of payments needs and provide support to the budget”.

The deal is expected to play a role in Ethiopia’s negotiations for a comprehensive debt restructuring with international creditors. The country had defaulted on its sovereign bond in December 2023 as the economy continued to suffer from widespread conflict.

The IMF foresees price increases for food and essential commodities will be especially hard on the urban poor, and recommends the strengthening of safety net programs to absorb the shock. The Fund forecasts that inflation will peak at 31.1 percent in 2025, up from the current 23 percent, before declining to 9.4 percent in 2028/29.

The government has pledged to take measures to tame inflation, including raising reserve requirements depending on liquidity conditions and implementing credit caps.

Gofa landslides claim hundreds of lives

A series of landslides in Kencho Shacha Gozdi in the Southern Regional State’s Geze Gofa Zone claimed hundreds of lives following heavy rains.

The disaster took place in a remote rural setting, making it difficult to bring in heavy machinery to aid rescue efforts and scenes of people using spades, shovels, pickaxes, and their bare hands to desperately dig through the earth ended up circulating widely on national and international media.

AUGUST 2024

Election Board reinstates TPLF under ‘special circumstances’, Getachew Reda boycotts party meeting

The National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) reinstated the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) as a political party, reversing the decision made to strip the party of its legal standing during the two-year northern war. The Board granted the recognition under “special circumstances.”

The NEBE decision, announced on August 9, 2024, followed a recommendation for reinstatement from the Ministry of Justice, which said it recognized the TPLF’s commitment to adhere to constitutional law and cease involvement in criminal activity. The move also came amid reports of a widening rift among TPLF leadership.

A press release from the Board said the decision to reinstate the party was in alignment with the recently amended Political Parties Registration and Electoral Ethics Proclamation, which allows the re-registration of previously banned parties under strict conditions.

“TPLF’s request to be reinstated under its previous legal entity was denied because there is no legal provision allowing the re-registration of parties involved in acts of violence,” read the NEBE press release.

The Board had instructed the TPLF to approve its bylaws and elect new leadership within a six-month window, and electoral officials said they would be keeping a close eye on the party to ensure it adheres to the terms of its registration.

Still, the process has not been without controversy. Disputes between the federal government and the TPLF regarding the conditions of re-registration have persisted, with some factions within the TPLF expressing dissatisfaction with the terms imposed.

TPLF officials and their counterparts in the incumbent Prosperity Party have been engaged in a dispute over the terms of the former’s reinstatement. TPLF leadership wants to see the party retain its pre-war status—a proposition opposed by the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD).

The PM had cautioned that failure to concede, re-register, and conduct a general assembly could lead to renewed conflict.

The developments also coincide with a split in the upper echelons of TPLF leadership, with Getachew Reda, deputy chairman and president of the Tigray Interim Administration, boycotting a party meeting as a result of the divisions.

Inside sources told The Reporter that TPLF leadership is split between a reformist faction led by Getachew, which wants to re-register the TPLF as a new party, and a conservative faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael, which wants to see a restoration of the party’s pre-war status.

Ethiopia warns of potential instability in Horn due to Somalia military cooperation with ‘external actors’

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused Somalia of “colluding with external actors” following recent military aid provided to the country by Egypt.

The accusation is the latest development in a series of disputes that have marred relations between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu since Ethiopia signed a controversial deal with the breakaway territory of Somaliland in January.

The Ministry warned that the recent military cooperation agreements concerning Somalia, coupled with the transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to a new peace support mission, could lead to increased instability in the Horn of Africa.

The Ministry noted that, despite tangible progress made in peace talks between Somalia and Ethiopia, which were facilitated by Turkiye, Somalia has chosen to align with external actors “aiming to destabilize the region”.

“Ethiopia won’t remain idle while external forces seek to destabilize the region,” reads a statement from the Foreign Ministry.

Reports suggest that Somalia does not want Ethiopian troops as part of the AU-led peacekeeping force operating in Somalia when the current ATMIS mandate ends in December.

Ethiopia fears this could undermine the “hard-won gains against terrorist groups,” according to Foreign Minister, Taye Atskeselassie.

“Let us be clear that the ATMIS transition should not lead to huge uncertainty and chaos in the Horn of Africa. More importantly, it should not undermine the hard-won gains against the most dangerous and perilous regional and international terrorist groups,” he said on X.

Climbing tensions in the Horn of Africa are taking their toll on the Ethiopian Airlines Group as the flag carrier was forced to announce the suspension of flights between Addis Ababa and Asmara, Eritrea, while it also faced threats of a similar suspension of flights to Somalia over what Mogadishu called violations of its sovereignty.

The Group announced in early September that it was scrapping its 10 times a week service to Asmara following an earlier notice from the Eritrean government stating that the airline would no longer be allowed to operate in the country by the end of this month.

Flights only resumed between the two countries six years ago, after a 20-year break, in a highly symbolic move that represented the easing of historic tensions.

In its July statement, the Eritrean Civil Aviation Authority accused the Group of “malicious trading practices” and included a long list of grievances such as mishandling passenger baggage.

The state-owned airline, Africa’s largest air operator, had been speaking to the authorities in Asmara to try and address the complaints but little has come from the efforts.

A few weeks prior, the Group managed to convince Somali civil aviation authorities to push back a deadline for the suspension of all Ethiopian Airlines flights to Somalia originally slated to take effect on August 23, 2024.

Somalia’s Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA) issued a warning on August 21, notifying the Group that it would be suspending all ET flights to Somalia two days later if the airline failed to address complaints related to “sovereignty violations” in its flight coding system.

The notice accused the flag carrier of omitting “Somalia” on its schedule for flights destined for airports in the neighboring country, instead including only town and city names and the corresponding airport codes.