What Ethiopia Stands To Gain From Washington’s New Strategy

The national security strategy publicized by US President Donald Trump’s administration late last week has raised eyebrows around the globe, with scholars, politicians, and analysts observing the document makes fundamental departures not only from Trump’s strategy during his first term, but also from the status quo rhetoric of global power dominance.

Many assert the strategy marks Washington’s official acknowledgment that the era of unipolarism is at an end, and signals the Trump administration is attempting to find a footing to reassert the United States of America within a global geopolitical space characterized by multipolar competition.

The National Security Strategy (NSS) is a glimpse into how a particular administration seeks to position or assert itself and secure what that administration prioritizes as a national interest agenda.

The NSS is often authored diagnosing grand agendas at hand, disclosing the scope of president’s decision making and setting out bureaucratic directions. Trump’s 2017 and 2025 strategies read like two very different administrations.

The 2017 document identified great power competition with Russia and China as the animating US foreign policy challenge, grounded in ‘principled realism’ that sought to advance US values and account for global power dynamics.

At the time, Trump designated Russia and China as “revisionist powers” seeking to “weaken US influence.” Last week, Washington signaled a departure from policy anchored in US-Europe ties and a change of focus towards seeking equal footing with Russia and China.

Trump’s new strategy landed with a bump across Europe and was welcomed with toasts in Beijing and Moscow. Saving the harshest critiques for Europe’s current trajectory, the 33-page grand strategy pushes commercial ties, strategic stability with Russia, and a strong US hand in Latin America.

A political analyst argues the strategy is akin to Beijing’s preferred approach to foreign policy.

“The US is adopting China’s method, which is more about business, instead of the typical US foreign policy approach prioritizing democracy and liberal ideology,” said the analyst.

Regarding America’s core vital national interests, the NSS stipulates a number of new approaches. The Trump administration aims at ensuring the western hemisphere remains ‘reasonably stable’ and well governed, preventing mass migration to the US, and preventing ‘hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets.’

It seeks to keep foreign actors from inflicting damage on the American economy, maintain freedom of all “crucial sea lanes, and ensure that strategically important supply chains and critical mineral sources remain fully accessible to the United States.”

The strategy references the Monroe Doctrine—a 19th-century US policy in opposition to European colonization and interference in the Americas—as Washington appears to downgrade the role it sees Europe playing in the future of America’s power projection.

Strikingly, the new NSS legitimatizes Poland as capable of becoming a regional anchor state in Europe, potentially replacing Berlin.

Regarding Russia, the NSS notes that “significant US diplomatic engagement” will be required to mitigate the risk of conflict between Russia with Europe. The NSS claims that European governments’ “subversion of democratic processes” is responsible for Europe not pursuing more actively an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

All in all, the strategy signals a major shift in US-Europe relations. It urges Europe to take primary responsibility for its own defense, downplays NATO expansion, and omits criticism of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The Trump administration says it intends to enable Europe to “stand on its own feet and operate as a group of aligned sovereign nations” by preventing adversarial powers from gaining domineering influence in the continent.

However, some observers say the document serves as a tool to forge an ideological bridge between Washington and some of the most extremist parties in Europe.

Trump’s plans also include preventing “an adversarial power” from usurping US primacy in the Middle East, including by securing oil and gas supplies and strategic chokepoints in the region.

To accomplish these goals, the document lays out that the Trump administration aims to avoid unnecessary military conflicts while bolstering US military, economic and diplomatic strength by pursuing pragmatic commercial, political and security arrangements with foreign partner countries. It intends to do so while adopting a “predisposition to non-interventionism,” including by avoiding imposing democratic or social change on foreign countries.

The NSS states that multiple factors that have led the United States historically to prioritize engagement in the Middle East are no longer present—namely, there being greater global diversification of energy supplies and sources, with the United States becoming a net energy exporter; and there being comparatively less competition by global superpowers for regional influence, with that competition having “given way to great power jockeying, in which the United States retains the most enviable position.”

The Trump administration predicts  the Middle East region will increasingly become a destination for international investment and in industries beyond oil and gas such as nuclear energy, AI, and defense technology. It also notes that US partners in the region may be collaborators for advancing other economic interests, such as securing critical supply chains or developing friendly and open markets in Africa.

The document states that the United States will depart from its “misguided experiment with hectoring these nations—especially the Gulf monarchies—into abandoning their traditions and historic forms of government … we should encourage and applaud reform when and where it emerges organically, without trying to impose it from without.”

What Will it Mean for Ethiopia, Africa?

The NSS reiterates that the Trump administration will not prioritize the spreading of ideology and will instead look to partner with “select countries” in Africa to prevent conflict and foster improved economic ties. The Trump administration will seek both to improve existing trade relationships with African states while transitioning others from “a foreign aid paradigm to an investment and growth paradigm” to build on Africa’s significant natural resources and “latent economic potential.”

“For far too long, American policy in Africa has focused on providing, and later on spreading, liberal ideology. The United States should instead look to partner with select countries to ameliorate conflict, foster mutually beneficial trade relationships, and transition from a foreign aid paradigm to an investment and growth paradigm capable of harnessing Africa’s abundant natural resources and latent economic potential,” reads the document.

It explicitly states Washington’s potential role in crafting negotiated settlements to avert potential conflict between Ethiopia and its neighbors.

“Opportunities for engagement could include negotiating settlements to ongoing conflicts (e.g., DRC-Rwanda, Sudan), and preventing new ones (e.g., Ethiopia, Eritrea-Somalia), as well as action to amend our approach to aid and investment (e.g., the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act). And we must remain wary of resurgent Islamist terrorist activity in parts of Africa while avoiding any long-term American presence or commitments,” reads the NSS.

Ahead of the document’s publication, the Trump administration oversaw the signing of a peace accord between DRC and Rwanda last week. Analysts posit the move is tied to American interests in critical mineral deposits in DRC rather than a genuine desire to see peace in Africa.

They argue Washington’s rapprochement in Africa is geared towards sating America’s growing appetite for Africa’s critical minerals and warding off competition posed by China’s strong presence on the continent.

The NSS also highlights the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) as an example of legislation providing for robust US trade and economic ties to Africa, pledging to “amend our approach to trade and investment” with African countries. The NSS notes that as part of a broader strategy of transitioning from aid- to trade- and investment-focused ties with African states, the administration will immediately focus on critical mineral development and the energy sector, including US backed nuclear energy and natural gas.

Ethiopia has been excluded from AGOA, a preferential trade agreement that allows African countries to export a range of commodities to the US duty free, since January 2022. The Biden administration delisted the country amid allegations of abuses and rights violations committed during the two-year northern war.

The suspension has had a severe impact on foreign direct investment, particularly in industrial parks, and proven detrimental to the country’s efforts at industrialization. Trump’s new NSS could reverse this, and could also reset Washington’s rather cold relationship with PM Abiy Ahmed’s administration since the northern Ethiopia war.

However, how US interests in the Horn and Red Sea region will align with Ethiopia’s growing ambitions to secure sea access has become a point of discussion among analysts.

The strategy highlights Washington’s desire to secure the Red Sea shipping lane and hints at possibilities for a negotiated settlement between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia.

“This clearly indicates that Trump seeks a win-win settlement both for Ethiopia’s sea access national interest, and also to address the opposing positions of neighboring countries and Egypt. The question is, what can Ethiopia offer these countries in return if America is committed to the negotiated settlement?” asked one analyst, speaking anonymously.

He noted that doubts remain about the strength of the relationship between Addis Ababa and Washington, as well as how the US plans to handle Cairo’s strong position against Ethiopia’s interests.

Just two weeks ago, PM Abiy and General Dagvin Anderson, head of US military operations in Africa, discussed opportunities for enhanced joint cooperation to serve mutual interest, promote regional stability. Anderson also deliberated with Field Marshal Berhanu Jula on peacekeeping and counterterrorism efforts in the region.

Just days before the NSS was launched, Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with PM Abiy over the phone, primarily on “shared commitment to regional stability and to building a foundation for peace in the Horn of Africa.”

The NSS and the recent engagements between Addis Ababa and Washington indicate the Trump administration’s immediate priority when it comes to Ethiopia is averting conflict.

The last major conflict in the country saw Kenya emerge as Washington’s preferred regional anchor state. The Biden administration designated Kenya as a ‘non-NATO ally of America,’ and President William Ruto appears to be enjoying a similarly warm relationship with the incumbent US president.

Just last week, Ruto signed a three billion dollar project dubbed the America First Global Strategy, which is the first of its kind since Trump scrapped USAID.

During his speech after the signing ceremony, Ruto praised Trump for his overtures towards Kenya and East Africa.

“We will be also participating in one of the most consequential and historic signing ceremonies in the next event on eastern DRC that will see stability, peace, and progress achieved as a result of the bringing together of the various teams and creating an ecosystem where our region, the East African region, we can unlock the potential that comes out of the peace and stability that we envisage, and encourage all actors that we work together towards the success of what President Trump has put together,” said Ruto.

The analyst observes that if the administration of Abiy Ahmed seeks to reinstate itself as a key US ally in the region, Ethiopia might have to abandon some of its ambitions.

“This means that eitherEthiopia will have to abandon its sea access interests, or the US has to commit itself to realize Ethiopia’s ambitions. But if Ethiopia continues pursuing its interest without the backing of America, Kenya will not only remain the regional anchor force, but also Trump’s enforcer,” he said.